Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.
No. 25-1311 · October Term 2026 · Judicial Power
Expected vote 6–3 for Apple Inc.. Chance of a unanimous ruling 44%.
Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.
The case
Apple Inc. is being sued by Epic Games, Inc. over Apple's App Store policies, specifically regarding commissions and restrictions on external purchasing links. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed a district court's finding that Apple was in civil contempt for violating the "spirit" of an injunction, even though the injunction's text did not explicitly address the conduct. The Supreme Court must now decide whether a civil contempt finding can be based on the "spirit" of an injunction or if it requires a clear violation of explicitly proscribed conduct.
- Whether civil contempt requires a clear and unambiguous violation of an injunction's text, or if it can be based on violating the "spirit" of the injunction.
- Whether the Ninth Circuit's approach to contempt in this case creates an exception to established equitable principles governing injunctions.
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
This case presents two fundamental and recurring questions concerning the limits on the equitable authority of the federal courts: 1. Whether a court may hold a party in civil contempt based on a violation of an injunction's "spirit" where the injunction is silent as to the conduct upon which contempt is based, as the Ninth Circuit holds; or, instead, whether a court must ground a finding of civil contempt on the violation of an order that clearly and unambiguously proscribes the precise conduct at issue, as other circuits hold. 2. Whether the Ninth Circuit has properly created an "antitrust" or "competition" exception to Trump v. CASA, Inc ., 606 U.S. 831 (2025), and the longstanding equitable principles on which CASA rests, or otherwise disregarded CASA 's limits.
Facts of the case (Oyez)
Apple created the iPhone, iOS, and the App Store—a two-sided marketplace connecting millions of app developers with consumers worldwide. To compensate Apple for its platform, Apple charges developers a commission of 15–30% on digital goods purchased through its In-App Purchase (IAP) system. Apple also maintained anti-steering provisions that blocked developers from directing users to cheaper purchasing options outside the App Store. Epic Games, one of the world’s largest mobile game developers and distributor of its own competing app marketplace, challenged these rules. In 2020, Epic filed suit alleging Apple's anti-steering provisions violated California’s Unfair Competition Law (UCL) by preventing consumers from learning about lower-priced alternatives. After a bench trial, the district court agreed on the UCL claim and issued a 75-word permanent injunction barring Apple from prohibiting developers from including buttons, external links, or other calls to action directing users to alternative purchasing mechanisms. The injunction said nothing about commissions. After the Supreme Court declined to hear Apple’s appeal in January 2024, Apple implemented what it called a compliance program. Rather than simply allowing unfettered link-outs, Apple imposed a 27% commission on all external link-out purchases—a rate Apple’s own internal analysis showed would make link-outs economically unviable for virtually every developer—and paired that commission with a set of restrictions designed to maximize user friction: invisible “plain button” styles, five rigid link templates, a full-screen “scare screen” warning users they were leaving the App Store, static URLs that required users to manually log in, and a ban on placing external links anywhere near the purchase flow. Internal documents revealed Apple deliberately modeled the precise amount of friction needed to ensure developers would abandon link-outs entirely, and that Apple chose the most anticompetitive options available at every decision point. Epic moved to enforce the injunction through a civil contempt proceeding, arguing Apple had violated the injunction's goals even though the injunction’s text never addressed commissions. After multi-day evidentiary hearings, the district court held Apple in civil contempt, finding Apple had violated the “spirit” of the injunction by imposing a prohibitive commission and friction-inducing restrictions. Apple appealed, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit affirmed the contempt finding, holding under circuit precedent that “parties may be held in contempt for violating the spirit of an injunction” even where the injunction’s text does not address the conduct at issue; the Ninth Circuit denied rehearing en banc.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Judicial Power cases, and when the lower court ruled liberal; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court liberal | At argument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes judicial restraint and the importance of clear legal standards, which could lead him to favor a strict interpretation of injunctions for contempt findings. | 66% Apple Inc. | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 197 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 730 votes | not yet argued |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas typically adheres to textualist interpretations, suggesting he would likely require a clear textual violation of the injunction for a contempt finding. | 66% Apple Inc. | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 57% Judicial Power · 388 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 1,344 votes | not yet argued |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito generally favors a strict construction of legal texts and a limited view of judicial equitable powers, which would likely lead him to require explicit language in an injunction for a contempt finding. | 68% Apple Inc. | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 65% Judicial Power · 190 votes | 79% lower court liberal · 699 votes | not yet argued |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor often considers the practical effects of judicial decisions and the intent behind legal remedies, which might make her more open to considering the "spirit" of an injunction in contempt proceedings. | 57% Apple Inc. | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 58% Judicial Power · 149 votes | 48% lower court liberal · 560 votes | not yet argued |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan often considers the practical implications and underlying purposes of legal rules, which could lead her to weigh the intent of the injunction alongside its text. | 57% Apple Inc. | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 61% Judicial Power · 137 votes | 51% lower court liberal · 495 votes | not yet argued |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch is a proponent of textualism and originalism, which would likely lead him to require a clear and unambiguous violation of the injunction's text for a contempt finding. | 66% Apple Inc. | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 83 votes | 75% lower court liberal · 278 votes | not yet argued |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh generally emphasizes clear legal rules and adherence to precedent, suggesting he would likely favor a strict interpretation of injunctions for contempt findings. | 66% Apple Inc. | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 73% Judicial Power · 62 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 235 votes | not yet argued |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett often emphasizes textual fidelity and a cautious approach to expanding judicial power, which could lead her to favor a strict interpretation of injunctions for contempt findings. | 66% Apple Inc. | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 71% Judicial Power · 49 votes | 76% lower court liberal · 168 votes | not yet argued |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often considers the broader context and equitable considerations in legal disputes, which might make her more open to considering the "spirit" of an injunction in contempt proceedings. | 57% Apple Inc. | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 60% Judicial Power · 37 votes | 38% lower court liberal · 108 votes | not yet argued |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.