FCC v. AT&T
No. 25-406 · October Term 2025 · Economic Activity · decided June 4, 2026
Decided: FCC won 8-1. The model was right.
Expected vote 6–3 for FCC. Chance of a unanimous ruling 45%. FantasySCOTUS crowd: 70% FCC.
The case
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is appealing a Fifth Circuit decision that vacated a $57 million fine against AT&T for allegedly misusing customer location data. The lower court found that the FCC's process for assessing and enforcing monetary forfeitures violated AT&T's rights under Article III and the Seventh Amendment. The Supreme Court must now determine whether the Communications Act provisions governing these FCC forfeiture proceedings are consistent with these constitutional requirements.
- Whether the FCC's administrative process for imposing monetary forfeitures, which does not include a jury trial unless the government sues to collect, violates the Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial.
- Whether the FCC's ability to issue final forfeiture orders without a de novo judicial hearing infringes upon Article III's vesting of judicial power in federal courts.
- The case will clarify the balance between administrative agency enforcement powers and constitutional rights to due process and a jury trial.
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
The Communications Act of 1934, 47 U.S.C. 151 et seq ., empowers the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to assess monetary forfeiture penalties for certain violations of the Act or the FCC's regulations by issuing a notice of apparent liability, giving the regulated party an opportunity to respond in writing, and then issuing a final decision. If the regulated party declines to pay and the government sues to collect the penalties, the regulated party is entitled to a de novo jury trial in a federal district court. Alternatively, the subject of an FCC forfeiture order may pay the monetary penalty and file a petition for review in a court of appeals, thereby triggering a judicial-review proceeding in which no jury is available. The question presented is as follows: Whether the Communications Act provisions that govern the FCC's assessment and enforcement of monetary forfeitures are consistent with the Seventh Amendment and Article III.
Facts of the case (Oyez)
Between 2014 and 2019, AT&T operated a location-based services program in which it collected and shared its customers’ mobile location data with third-party service providers such as Life Alert and AAA. To provide this data, AT&T contracted with “location aggregators,” who in turn resold the data to service providers. AT&T required those providers to obtain customer consent for each location request and reviewed their procedures, but it did not directly verify customer consent before transferring data. In 2018, news reports began revealing that some service providers misused or failed to adequately protect customers’ location data. In response, AT&T halted access for those providers, and by March 2019, shuttered the entire location-data program. Prompted by these reports, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) initiated an investigation and in 2020 issued a Notice of Apparent Liability (NAL), proposing a $57 million fine for AT&T’s purported violations of Section 222 of the Communications Act of 1934 and corresponding FCC regulations. AT&T challenged the classification of location data as “customer proprietary network information” (CPNI), asserted it had acted reasonably, and raised constitutional objections. After reviewing AT&T’s written response, the FCC rejected its defenses and issued a forfeiture order. Significantly, the FCC imposed the fine without a hearing or trial; AT&T’s only opportunity to respond occurred through written submissions to the agency. AT&T paid the fine and petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit for review. The Fifth Circuit vacated the forfeiture order, holding that the FCC’s in-house enforcement process violated AT&T’s rights under Article III and the Seventh Amendment.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Economic Activity cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court conservative | At argument | Voted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes the importance of historical practice in interpreting constitutional provisions, particularly the Seventh Amendment. His vote may hinge on whether the FCC's process aligns with historical understandings of administrative penalties and judicial review. | 63% FCC | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 68% Economic Activity · 328 votes | 61% lower court conservative · 734 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas is a strong proponent of originalism and often scrutinizes the expansion of administrative agency power. He is likely to be concerned with any perceived encroachment on the Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial and Article III's allocation of judicial power. | 63% FCC | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 62% Economic Activity · 555 votes | 43% lower court conservative · 1,365 votes | not yet argued | AT&T ✗ |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito generally takes a textualist approach and has often expressed skepticism about broad interpretations of agency authority. He will likely focus on the plain language of the Seventh Amendment and Article III in relation to the FCC's enforcement scheme. | 63% FCC | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 67% Economic Activity · 322 votes | 48% lower court conservative · 722 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor often considers the practical implications of legal rulings and has shown a willingness to uphold reasonable exercises of agency power when consistent with statutory mandates. Her analysis may involve balancing the efficiency of administrative enforcement with constitutional safeguards. | 66% FCC | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 58% Economic Activity · 264 votes | 76% lower court conservative · 594 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan typically defers to administrative agencies when their actions are within the scope of their delegated authority and consistent with statutory intent. She may look for ways to uphold the FCC's enforcement mechanisms if they are deemed a reasonable exercise of congressional power. | 66% FCC | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 59% Economic Activity · 249 votes | 75% lower court conservative · 543 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch is a vocal critic of the administrative state and often champions individual rights against government overreach. He is likely to be highly critical of the FCC's process, particularly regarding the lack of a jury trial and potential Article III concerns. | 63% FCC | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 60% Economic Activity · 141 votes | 59% lower court conservative · 286 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh generally supports administrative agencies acting within their statutory authority but also emphasizes the importance of judicial review and constitutional limits on agency power. He will likely seek a balance that respects both agency expertise and constitutional rights. | 63% FCC | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 68% Economic Activity · 123 votes | 62% lower court conservative · 244 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett often employs a textualist and originalist methodology. Her analysis will likely focus on the historical understanding of the Seventh Amendment and Article III, and whether the FCC's process comports with those principles. | 63% FCC | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 65% Economic Activity · 85 votes | 60% lower court conservative · 178 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often considers the practical realities of governance and the intent behind legislative schemes. She may be inclined to uphold the FCC's enforcement framework if it is seen as a necessary and efficient means of regulating the communications industry, provided it meets constitutional muster. | 68% FCC | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 55% Economic Activity · 62 votes | 80% lower court conservative · 127 votes | not yet argued | FCC ✓ |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.