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Nielsen v. Watanabe

No. 25-417 · October Term 2026 · Judicial Power · argument November 9, 2026

questions presented (PDF) · docket · Oyez

67%chance Nielsen (petitioner) wins · the base rate before argument

Expected vote 6–3 for Nielsen. Chance of a unanimous ruling 44%.

Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.

The case

Francis Nielsen is suing Kekai Watanabe over a Bivens claim, alleging that Nielsen, a staff nurse, denied him adequate medical care for a fractured coccyx while he was a federal detainee. The Ninth Circuit held that Watanabe's suit did not present a "new" Bivens context, despite the availability of an alternative administrative remedy and factual differences from the precedent case. The Supreme Court must decide whether the Ninth Circuit erred in recognizing a Bivens cause of action in this context.

  • Whether the factual differences in Watanabe's injury (non-fatal, chronic pain) and the immediacy of harm constitute a "new Bivens context" distinct from Carlson v. Green.
  • Whether the availability of the Bureau of Prisons' Administrative Remedy Program as an alternative remedial scheme creates a "special factor counseling hesitation" against extending a Bivens remedy.
  • The case will clarify the scope of the judicially created Bivens remedy and the circumstances under which it can be extended to new factual scenarios, particularly concerning Eighth Amendment claims for inadequate medical care in federal prisons.
  • The Court will consider the balance between judicial restraint in creating damages remedies and ensuring accountability for constitutional violations by federal officials.

AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.

Parties
Petitioner: Francis Nielsen, Petitioner
Respondent: Kekai Watanabe
Below
United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit · September 6, 2024
115 F.4th 1034 · ruling coded liberal · cert. granted 6/22/2026
Question presented, as filed

This case concerns the judicially created damages remedy first recognized in Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents of Federal Bureau of Narcotics , 403 U.S. 388 (1971). In Carlson v. Green , 446 U.S. 14 (1980), the Court extended Bivens to an Eighth Amendment claim of deliberate indifference to medical needs where prison officials failed to address an inmate's acute asthma attack and exacerbated it, causing his death on-site within hours. Since then, this Court has emphasized that the creation of damages actions rests with Congress, not courts. The judicially created Bivens remedy thus cannot be ex-tended to any "new Bivens context" if any "special factor counsel[s] hesitation" in doing so. Ziglar v. Abbasi , 582 U.S. 120, 139-140 (2017). "[T]he new-context inquiry is easily satisfied," encompassing cases with '"meaningful[ly]"' different facts, or "'potential special factors' "-including "alternative remedial structures"-" 'not consider[ed]"' in the Court's prior cases. Egbert v. Boule , 596 U.S. 482, 492-493 (2022). "[A] court may not recognize a Bivens remedy" if "there is any reason to think that Congress might be better equipped to create a damages remedy." Id . at 492. In this case, respondent alleged that he suffered a fractured coccyx in a prison gang fight, causing chronic pain, but was not sent to a hospital. The Ninth Circuit held the suit did not present a "new" context from Carlson -not-withstanding an alternative remedial scheme this Court did not consider in Carlson , and despite significant factual differences such as the immediacy and severity of the harm alleged. The question presented is: Whether the Ninth Circuit here erred in recognizing a Bivens cause of action.

Facts of the case (Oyez)

Kekai Watanabe was a federal detainee at the Federal Detention Center in Honolulu when, in July 2021, rival gang members attacked him during a prison riot. After staff restored order, prison officials documented his visible injuries and placed him on sick call. Later that day, Watanabe told correctional officers he had headaches and pain and asked to see medical staff. He eventually described his condition to Francis Nielsen, a staff nurse at the facility, who denied his request to go to the hospital. Officials gave Watanabe over-the-counter pain medication. Months later, doctors diagnosed Watanabe with a fractured coccyx with bone chips in surrounding soft tissue, and prison officials agreed to refer him to a specialist. Watanabe then filed a pro se lawsuit alleging that Nielsen and others violated his Eighth Amendment rights by denying him adequate medical care and refusing to send him to the hospital, seeking $3 million in damages and injunctive relief. The district court dismissed Watanabe’s complaint, holding that his claim arose in a new Bivens context distinct from Carlson v. Green because he had access to an alternative administrative remedy—the Bureau of Prisons’ Administrative Remedy Program—that the Supreme Court had not considered in Carlson, and because his non-fatal injury differed meaningfully from the fatal asthma emergency in Carlson. A divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed, holding that the availability of alternative remedies did not render the context new and that Carlson governed; the Ninth Circuit then denied rehearing en banc over eleven judges’ dissents.

The nine

Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Judicial Power cases, and when the lower court ruled liberal; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.

JusticePredictedOverallThis issueLower court liberalAt argument
John G. Roberts
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Chief Justice Roberts has consistently expressed skepticism about expanding Bivens remedies, emphasizing that the creation of damages actions is primarily a legislative function. His jurisprudence often aligns with a narrow interpretation of Bivens, particularly when alternative remedial structures exist.

66% Nielsen68%
for the petitioner · 1,512 votes
69%
Judicial Power · 197 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 730 votes
not yet argued
Clarence Thomas
Republican appointee · since OT1991

Justice Thomas has been a vocal critic of the Bivens doctrine, arguing for its severe curtailment or outright abolition, believing that the Court should not create causes of action. He is likely to view any extension of Bivens with strong disfavor, especially given the presence of an alternative remedy.

66% Nielsen59%
for the petitioner · 2,801 votes
57%
Judicial Power · 388 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 1,344 votes
not yet argued
Samuel A. Alito
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Justice Alito generally takes a restrictive view of Bivens, often joining opinions that limit its reach and emphasizing the separation of powers concerns inherent in judicial creation of remedies. He would likely find the alternative remedial scheme and factual differences to be significant special factors.

68% Nielsen62%
for the petitioner · 1,469 votes
65%
Judicial Power · 190 votes
79%
lower court liberal · 699 votes
not yet argued
Sonia Sotomayor
Democratic appointee · since OT2009

Justice Sotomayor has sometimes shown a willingness to consider the practical implications for individuals seeking redress for constitutional violations, but she has also joined opinions that acknowledge the Court's recent trend of limiting Bivens. The presence of an alternative remedy might push her to consider whether Congress is better equipped.

57% Nielsen61%
for the petitioner · 1,192 votes
58%
Judicial Power · 149 votes
48%
lower court liberal · 560 votes
not yet argued
Elena Kagan
Democratic appointee · since OT2010

Justice Kagan has often joined opinions that reflect a cautious approach to expanding Bivens, aligning with the Court's general trend of limiting its application. She would likely scrutinize whether the factual differences and alternative remedies truly create a 'new context' that counsels hesitation.

57% Nielsen63%
for the petitioner · 1,072 votes
61%
Judicial Power · 137 votes
51%
lower court liberal · 495 votes
not yet argued
Neil M. Gorsuch
Republican appointee · since OT2016

Justice Gorsuch has expressed strong views on the separation of powers and judicial restraint, often aligning with a strict interpretation of the Constitution and statutory text. He is likely to be highly skeptical of extending a judicially created remedy like Bivens, especially when Congress has not acted.

66% Nielsen65%
for the petitioner · 592 votes
69%
Judicial Power · 83 votes
75%
lower court liberal · 278 votes
not yet argued
Brett M. Kavanaugh
Republican appointee · since OT2018

Justice Kavanaugh has generally sided with the Court's recent jurisprudence that limits the expansion of Bivens, emphasizing the role of Congress in creating remedies. He would likely consider the alternative remedial scheme as a significant factor counseling against extending the Bivens remedy.

66% Nielsen69%
for the petitioner · 498 votes
73%
Judicial Power · 62 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 235 votes
not yet argued
Amy Coney Barrett
Republican appointee · since OT2020

Justice Barrett's jurisprudence often emphasizes textualism and originalism, which would likely lead her to be wary of expanding judicially created remedies. She would likely find the existence of an alternative remedial scheme and the factual distinctions from Carlson to be compelling reasons to reverse the Ninth Circuit.

66% Nielsen66%
for the petitioner · 360 votes
71%
Judicial Power · 49 votes
76%
lower court liberal · 168 votes
not yet argued
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Democratic appointee · since OT2022

Justice Jackson, as the newest member of the Court, has a less extensive Bivens record, but her general approach often considers the practical impact on individuals and access to justice. However, she is also likely to respect the Court's recent precedents that have narrowed Bivens, and the presence of an alternative remedy could be a significant consideration.

57% Nielsen59%
for the petitioner · 244 votes
60%
Judicial Power · 37 votes
38%
lower court liberal · 108 votes
not yet argued

Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.

Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.