Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan
No. 25-579 · October Term 2026 · Judicial Power · argument October 7, 2026
Expected vote 6–3 for Department of the Air Force. Chance of a unanimous ruling 44%.
Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.
The case
This case involves a dispute between the U.S. Air Force and an environmental group, Prutehi Guahan, over hazardous waste disposal at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a district court's dismissal, allowing Prutehi Guahan's claims that the Air Force violated environmental review procedures to proceed. The Supreme Court will now determine whether the Air Force's submission of a permit renewal application is a "final agency action" and if it must comply with general environmental review procedures before submitting such an application.
- Whether the federal government's submission of a permit renewal application under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) is a "final agency action" immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), which will determine when environmental groups can challenge such actions in court.
- Whether the federal government must conduct environmental reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) before submitting a RCRA permit renewal application, or if RCRA's specific procedures for hazardous waste treatment are sufficient, impacting the scope of environmental oversight for federal facilities.
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA), 42 U.S.C. 6901 et seq ., is a comprehensive environmental statute providing for cradle-to-grave regulation of hazardous waste through a scheme of cooperative federalism. Under RCRA, the United States Environmental Protection Agency may authorize state and territorial regulators to administer permitting programs for hazardous-waste-treatment facilities in their respective jurisdictions, including facilities operated by the federal government. The questions presented are as follows: 1. Whether the federal government's submission to a state or territorial regulator of an application to renew a RCRA permit is "final agency action" that is immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. 704. 2. Whether the federal government must comply with the general environmental- review procedures of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, 42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq ., before submitting a permit-renewal application under RCRA, which sets forth its own specific procedures to review environmental impacts in the context of hazardous-waste treatment.
Facts of the case (Oyez)
The U.S. Air Force operates Andersen Air Force Base at the northern tip of Guam, adjacent to Tarague Beach—a coastal area that sits above Guam's sole-source drinking-water aquifer and serves as habitat for endangered sea turtles. Since 1982, the Air Force has disposed of hazardous waste munitions at Tarague Beach through open burning and open detonation (OB/OD) operations, a method that involves igniting or exploding ordnance in open air. Under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), the Air Force must obtain a permit every three years from the Guam Environmental Protection Agency (Guam EPA), which has administered RCRA on the island since 1986. The Air Force has renewed that permit on a triennial cycle without interruption. When its most recent permit approached expiration in September 2021, the Air Force submitted a renewal application to Guam EPA in May 2021—without first preparing any environmental review under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The application described planned OB/OD operations for 2021 through 2024 and proposed restarting open burning, which had been inactive since at least the early 2000s. The Air Force conducted no environmental impact statement, no environmental assessment, and offered no public comment opportunity before committing to that plan. Guam EPA accepted the application, held a public comment period, and issued a preliminary notice neither approving nor denying the application while it reviewed public comments. Meanwhile, under RCRA's automatic-extension provision, the Air Force continued OB/OD operations under its 2018 permit while the renewal remained pending. Prutehi Litekyan filed suit in the District Court of Guam in January 2022, alleging that the Air Force violated NEPA by submitting its RCRA permit renewal application without conducting the required environmental review; the district court granted the Air Force's motion to dismiss on three grounds—lack of standing, absence of final agency action, and failure to state a claim—and Prutehi Litekyan timely appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, which reversed all three holdings.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Judicial Power cases, and when the lower court ruled liberal; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court liberal | At argument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often favors a narrow interpretation of agency authority and administrative procedures, which could lead him to scrutinize whether the permit application truly constitutes a final agency action ripe for judicial review. | 66% Department of the Air Force | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 197 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 730 votes | not yet argued |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas generally adheres to a strict textualist approach and is often skeptical of broad interpretations of federal environmental statutes, which might lead him to side with the Air Force regarding the scope of NEPA's application when RCRA provides specific procedures. | 66% Department of the Air Force | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 57% Judicial Power · 388 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 1,344 votes | not yet argued |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito frequently takes a conservative stance on environmental regulations and administrative law, often favoring limited judicial intervention in agency decisions and a narrow reading of statutes that impose burdens on federal agencies. | 68% Department of the Air Force | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 65% Judicial Power · 190 votes | 79% lower court liberal · 699 votes | not yet argued |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor often emphasizes environmental protection and access to justice, which could lead her to support a broader interpretation of "final agency action" and the applicability of NEPA to ensure robust environmental review. | 57% Department of the Air Force | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 58% Judicial Power · 149 votes | 48% lower court liberal · 560 votes | not yet argued |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan often seeks to balance statutory text with practical implications and congressional intent, and her approach to administrative law often considers the efficiency of government operations while also upholding environmental safeguards. | 57% Department of the Air Force | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 61% Judicial Power · 137 votes | 51% lower court liberal · 495 votes | not yet argued |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch often emphasizes statutory text and separation of powers, and he might be inclined to limit judicial review of agency actions unless explicitly authorized by statute, potentially favoring the Air Force's position on the finality of the permit application. | 66% Department of the Air Force | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 83 votes | 75% lower court liberal · 278 votes | not yet argued |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh often takes a pragmatic approach to administrative law, seeking to provide clear guidance for agencies and courts, and he may focus on the specific language of the APA and NEPA to determine the scope of review and environmental obligations. | 66% Department of the Air Force | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 73% Judicial Power · 62 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 235 votes | not yet argued |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett often applies a textualist methodology to statutory interpretation, which could lead her to a strict reading of "final agency action" under the APA and the interplay between NEPA and RCRA's specific environmental review processes. | 66% Department of the Air Force | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 71% Judicial Power · 49 votes | 76% lower court liberal · 168 votes | not yet argued |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often considers the practical impact of legal interpretations and has shown an interest in ensuring access to justice, which could lead her to support a reading of the APA and NEPA that allows for judicial review of significant environmental decisions. | 57% Department of the Air Force | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 60% Judicial Power · 37 votes | 38% lower court liberal · 108 votes | not yet argued |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.