Maxwell v. Dinis
No. 25-5930 · October Term 2026 · Judicial Power · argument November 2, 2026
Expected vote 5–4 for Maxwell. Chance of a unanimous ruling 43%.
Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.
The case
William Maxwell, a federal prisoner, is suing Acting Warden Sandra Dinis after the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) denied his request for transfer to a halfway house or home confinement under the First Step Act, ignoring most of his claims. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed Maxwell's habeas petition, holding that a civil rights suit, not a habeas petition, was the proper legal vehicle for his claims. The Supreme Court must now decide whether disputes over First Step Act time credits are actionable under habeas corpus and whether the trial court or a jury should determine if administrative remedies were exhausted given the alleged obstruction.
- Whether disputes regarding the calculation of an inmate's earned First Step Act time credits, which could lead to earlier transfer to a halfway house or home confinement, are properly brought under 28 U.S.C. §2241 (habeas corpus).
- Whether, in cases of alleged obstruction of the administrative remedy process, the exhaustion of administrative remedies becomes a factual issue for a jury, and if the trial court must make this determination initially.
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
In 2020 Maxwell sought transfer to halfway house or home confinement under the First Step Act of 2018, 18 U.S.C. §3624(g), 18 U.S.C. §3621(b) and §3621(h), the CARES Act of 2020, 18 U.S.C. §3624(c), the Second Chance Act of 2018 reauthorized by the First Step Act of 2018, 34 U.S.C. §60541, and Compassionate Release. The Warden only addressed Maxwell's CARES Act request and denied relief. The warden otherwise ignored all Maxwell's other explicitly pled issues. Maxwell, after exhausting his administrative remedies proceeded in Court, filing a §2241 habeas. The U.S.D.C. dismissed alleging Maxwell failed to exhaust his administrative remedies for First Step Act relief. Maxwell appealed the decision of the U.S.D.C. to the Fifth Circuit. Sua sponte , the Fifth Circuit held, contrary to this Court ’ s decision in Jones v. Hendrix , 216 L.Ed.2d 471, 484 (2022), and contrary to nine other Courts of Appeal -- see Woodall v. Fed. Bureau of Prisons , 432 F.3d 235, 241 (3d Cir. 2025); Jiminian v. Nash , 245 F.3d 144, 147 (2d Cir. 2001); Hernandez v, Campbell , 204 F.3d 861, 864 (9th Cir. 2000); United States v. Hutchins , 835 F.2d 185, 186 (8th Cir, 1987); Montez v. McKinna , 208 F.3d 862, 865 (10th Cir. 2000); United States v. Little , 392 F.3d 671, 678- 79 (4th Cir. 2024); McCarthan v. Dir. of Goodwill Indus. - Suncoast , 851 F.3d 1076, 1092-93 (11th Cir. 2007) ( en banc ); United States v. Barrett , 178 F.3d 34, 50 n.10 (1st Cir. 1999); and Valona v. United States , 138 F.3d 693, 694 (7th Cir. 1998) --that its bright-line rule adopted in Melot v. Bergomi , 970 F.3d 596, 599 (5th Cir. 2020) controlled. There the Fifth Circuit held that unless a favorable determination of the prisoner's claim would not automatically entitle him to accelerated release from his sentence, then the proper vehicle is a civil rights suit. The Fifth Circuit dismissed. I. The question for this Court is whether disputes regarding the calculation of an inmate's earned First Step Act time credits, enabling the inmate to transfer into halfway house or home confinement earlier, similar to parole, are actionable under 28 U.S.C. §2241, II. The question for this Court is whether, given all the obstruction of the administrative remedy process that took place in this case, under Perttu v. Richards , exhaustion of administrative remedies is interwoven into the underlying claims themselves, creating a fact issue for a jury, and whether the trial court must make that determination in the first instance
Facts of the case (Oyez)
William Maxwell is a federal prisoner housed at FCI Beaumont Low in Texas. In 2020, Maxwell asked prison officials to transfer him to a halfway house or home confinement, invoking several laws including the First Step Act's earned time credit provisions, which require the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) to apply credits prisoners earn through participation in rehabilitation programs toward earlier placement in prerelease custody. The BOP responded only to Maxwell's request under the separate CARES Act and denied it, ignoring his First Step Act arguments entirely. After Maxwell pushed through the BOP's administrative grievance process — a process he contends the BOP actively obstructed by losing filings, failing to respond, and submitting a false declaration claiming he never raised First Step Act claims — he filed a federal habeas corpus petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2241 seeking transfer to a halfway house or home confinement based on his earned First Step Act time credits. The district court dismissed Maxwell's petition, ruling he had failed to exhaust his administrative remedies on his First Step Act claims. Maxwell appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which sua sponte affirmed dismissal on a different ground — holding under its own bright-line rule that because a favorable ruling would not automatically accelerate Maxwell's release from prison, a civil rights lawsuit, not a habeas petition, was the only proper vehicle for his claims.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Judicial Power cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court conservative | At argument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often prioritizes judicial efficiency and adherence to established procedural rules, which could lead him to scrutinize the Fifth Circuit's bright-line rule and its deviation from other circuits. His vote in Jones v. Hendrix, which clarified the scope of habeas petitions, will be a key consideration. | 57% Maxwell | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 197 votes | 61% lower court conservative · 734 votes | not yet argued |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas generally favors strict textual interpretations of statutes and a limited view of judicial intervention, which might lead him to consider the precise language of the First Step Act and habeas statutes. His jurisprudence often emphasizes the importance of proper procedural channels. | 57% Maxwell | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 57% Judicial Power · 388 votes | 43% lower court conservative · 1,365 votes | not yet argued |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito typically takes a more conservative approach, often emphasizing deference to administrative agencies and strict adherence to statutory text. He will likely focus on the plain meaning of the First Step Act and the habeas statute, and the exhaustion of administrative remedies. | 57% Maxwell | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 65% Judicial Power · 190 votes | 48% lower court conservative · 722 votes | not yet argued |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor often considers the practical impact of legal rules on individuals, particularly those in vulnerable positions. She may be inclined to scrutinize the alleged obstruction of administrative remedies and the Fifth Circuit's rule that could limit prisoners' access to judicial review. | 57% Maxwell | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 58% Judicial Power · 149 votes | 76% lower court conservative · 594 votes | not yet argued |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan often seeks to find common ground and practical solutions, and she is known for her careful analysis of statutory interpretation. She will likely consider the legislative intent behind the First Step Act and the implications of the Fifth Circuit's ruling on its effectiveness. | 63% Maxwell | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 61% Judicial Power · 137 votes | 75% lower court conservative · 543 votes | not yet argued |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch is a proponent of textualism and originalism, and he often expresses concerns about judicial overreach and the proper role of courts. He will likely focus on the precise wording of the relevant statutes and the historical understanding of habeas corpus, and may be critical of the Fifth Circuit's sua sponte ruling. | 63% Maxwell | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 83 votes | 59% lower court conservative · 286 votes | not yet argued |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh often emphasizes judicial restraint and respect for precedent, but also a pragmatic approach to statutory interpretation. He will likely consider the consistency of the Fifth Circuit's rule with other circuits and the Court's own precedent in Jones v. Hendrix. | 57% Maxwell | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 73% Judicial Power · 62 votes | 62% lower court conservative · 244 votes | not yet argued |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett often applies a textualist approach to statutory interpretation and is generally focused on the plain meaning of the law. She will likely examine the language of the First Step Act and the habeas statute to determine the appropriate vehicle for Maxwell's claims. | 57% Maxwell | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 71% Judicial Power · 49 votes | 60% lower court conservative · 178 votes | not yet argued |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often brings a perspective informed by her experience as a trial judge and her focus on the practical application of legal principles. She may be particularly attentive to the alleged obstruction of administrative remedies and the implications of the Fifth Circuit's rule for access to justice for prisoners. | 63% Maxwell | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 60% Judicial Power · 37 votes | 80% lower court conservative · 127 votes | not yet argued |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.