Kian v. Florida
No. 25-6623 · October Term 2026 · Criminal Procedure
Expected vote 5–4 for Kian. Chance of a unanimous ruling 41%.
Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.
The case
Hamed Kian is challenging Florida's practice of using six-person juries for serious felony cases, arguing it violates his Sixth and Fourteenth Amendment rights to a 12-person jury. The Florida Fourth District Court of Appeal affirmed his conviction and sentence, which included prison time and probation. The Supreme Court must decide whether the Constitution guarantees a 12-person jury for serious felony charges.
- Does the Sixth Amendment's right to a jury trial, incorporated against the states by the Fourteenth Amendment, require a 12-person jury for serious felony offenses?
- What constitutes a 'serious felony' for the purpose of determining jury size requirements?
- How do prior Supreme Court precedents on jury size, such as Williams v. Florida (1977), apply to this case, particularly concerning the historical understanding of a jury?
- What are the implications for state criminal justice systems if a 12-person jury is mandated for serious felonies?
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
Whether Petitioner was deprived of his right, under the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments, to a trial by a 12-person jury when the defendant is charged with a serious felony? There are two other petitions raising the same question presented. See Parada v. United States , No. 25-166; Minor v. Florida , No. 24-7489. This case should at least be held pending resolution of those petitions.
Facts of the case (Oyez)
Florida charged Hamed Kian with five counts of practicing chiropractic medicine with a suspended license—a serious felony under Florida law. Under Florida statute, only capital cases require a 12-person jury; all other criminal cases require just six jurors. Consistent with that law, a six-person jury tried Kian and convicted him on all five counts. The trial court sentenced him to a year and a day in prison on three counts, to run concurrently, followed by five years of probation on the remaining two counts, to run consecutively to each other. Kian argued that trying him before a six-person jury violated his Sixth Amendment right to a 12-person jury for a serious criminal charge. Kian appealed to the Fourth District Court of Appeal of Florida, which affirmed his convictions and sentences without a written opinion on October 16, 2025. Because the Florida Supreme Court lacks jurisdiction to review district court decisions issued without a written opinion, Kian petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court directly.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Criminal Procedure cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court conservative | At argument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes judicial restraint and adherence to precedent, but also considers the historical understanding of constitutional rights. He may weigh the historical context of jury trials against the Court's existing jurisprudence on jury size. | 57% Kian | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 65% Criminal Procedure · 401 votes | 61% lower court conservative · 734 votes | not yet argued |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas is known for his originalist approach, often looking to the text and original public meaning of the Constitution. His analysis would likely focus on the historical understanding of the Sixth Amendment's jury trial guarantee at the time of its adoption and the Fourteenth Amendment's ratification. | 51% Kian | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 55% Criminal Procedure · 724 votes | 43% lower court conservative · 1,365 votes | not yet argued |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito typically favors a textualist and originalist interpretation, often deferring to state legislative decisions unless there is a clear constitutional violation. He will likely scrutinize the historical understanding of the jury trial right and the Court's precedents on jury size. | 51% Kian | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 51% Criminal Procedure · 388 votes | 48% lower court conservative · 722 votes | not yet argued |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor often emphasizes the protection of individual rights and the practical impact of legal decisions on defendants. She will likely consider the fairness and reliability of six-person juries in serious felony cases and the historical importance of the 12-person jury. | 66% Kian | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 72% Criminal Procedure · 306 votes | 76% lower court conservative · 594 votes | not yet argued |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan often considers both textual and historical arguments, as well as the practical implications of legal rules. She will likely examine the historical development of the jury trial right and the Court's prior decisions on jury composition, seeking a consistent and principled application. | 66% Kian | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 72% Criminal Procedure · 267 votes | 75% lower court conservative · 543 votes | not yet argued |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch is a proponent of originalism and textualism, often emphasizing the historical understanding of constitutional provisions. He will likely focus on the original meaning of the Sixth Amendment's jury trial guarantee and whether it historically encompassed a 12-person jury for serious crimes. | 57% Kian | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 63% Criminal Procedure · 126 votes | 59% lower court conservative · 286 votes | not yet argued |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh often seeks to apply precedent consistently and may look to the historical understanding of constitutional rights while also considering the practicalities of state criminal justice systems. He will likely weigh the historical arguments for a 12-person jury against existing Supreme Court jurisprudence. | 63% Kian | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 66% Criminal Procedure · 105 votes | 62% lower court conservative · 244 votes | not yet argued |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett often employs a textualist and originalist methodology, focusing on the plain meaning of constitutional text and historical practice. She will likely examine the historical understanding of the Sixth Amendment's jury trial right and the Court's precedents on jury size. | 57% Kian | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 60% Criminal Procedure · 80 votes | 60% lower court conservative · 178 votes | not yet argued |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often considers the historical context of constitutional provisions, the practical impact of legal rules, and the protection of individual rights, particularly for criminal defendants. She will likely scrutinize the historical arguments for a 12-person jury and the implications for due process and fair trials. | 68% Kian | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 67% Criminal Procedure · 54 votes | 80% lower court conservative · 127 votes | not yet argued |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.