International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson
No. 25-840 · October Term 2026 · Judicial Power · argument December 7, 2026
Expected vote 5–4 for International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc.. Chance of a unanimous ruling 43%.
Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.
The case
International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. and several parents are suing Washington state officials over new laws that allow runaway minors to receive "gender-affirming treatment" without parental notification or consent. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed the case, holding that the parents lacked Article III standing. The Supreme Court must now decide whether these parents have standing to challenge laws that they argue deliberately displace their decision-making role regarding their children's gender transitions.
- Does the "interest of parents in the care, custody, and control of their children" extend to challenging state laws that facilitate gender-affirming treatment for minors without parental consent?
- What constitutes a sufficient "present and likely future impediment" to parental rights to establish Article III standing in federal court?
- How should the Court balance a state's interest in protecting minors seeking healthcare services against parents' fundamental liberty interest in directing their children's upbringing?
- Does the alleged harm of parents altering their parenting decisions (e.g., disciplining less, avoiding certain discussions) due to fear of triggering the law constitute a concrete injury for standing purposes?
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
The "interest of parents in the care, custody, and control of their children □ is perhaps the oldest of the fundamental liberty interests recognized by this Court." Troxel v. Granville , 530 U.S. 57, 65 (2000). But that right is mere rhetoric if federal judges bar parents from court via a miserly interpretation of standing doctrine-a question, as three Justices recently recognized, that is of "great and growing national importance." Lee v. Poudre Sch. Dist. R-1 , 607 U.S. --, 2025 WL 2906469, *1 (2025) (Alita, J., statement) (citation omitted). It is certainly important to Petitioners, who are parents of gender-confused children (including one child who previously ran away) and who do not wish to affirm that confusion. They challenged Washington laws designed to give runaway minors "gender affirming treatment" without parental notice or consent. But despite their being the challenged laws' target, and despite their alleging specific current harms and a substantial risk of specific future harms to their ability to parent, the Ninth Circuit held that Petitioners lacked Article III standing. The question presented is: Whether parents have standing to challenge a law or policy that deliberately displaces their decision-making role as to "gender transitions" of their children, and in so doing creates present and likely future impediments to their ability to parent their children as they deem best for them.
Facts of the case (Oyez)
Washington State historically required licensed youth shelters to notify parents within 72 hours whenever a runaway minor arrived at their facility, including the child’s exact location, physical and emotional condition, and the circumstances of arrival. Parents could then retrieve their child immediately. The only exception to that notification requirement arose when informing parents would expose the minor to abuse or neglect. In 2023, Washington enacted two laws—Senate Bill 5599 and House Bill 1406—that fundamentally changed this framework. The amendments added a second exception to the parental-notification requirement: whenever a runaway minor is “seeking or receiving protected health care services,” which the legislature defined to include “gender-affirming treatment.” Under the amended law, a shelter receiving such a child must notify the state Department of Children, Youth, and Families (DCYF) instead of the parents. DCYF must then make only a “good faith attempt” to contact parents—which, under implementing policy, means asking the child whether to provide parental contact information—and must offer to refer the minor for “appropriate behavioral health services” without any required parental involvement. The law sets no timeline for reunification in the gender-affirming-care scenario, and parents receive no information about the child’s location or condition. The petitioners are five sets of parents proceeding under pseudonyms, all Washington residents whose children experience gender dysphoria and who refuse to affirm a gender identity contrary to their children’s biological sex. Most of the parents discovered their children had already been socially transitioned at school without their knowledge. One family’s child had previously run away from home. Others faced explicit threats—from older siblings or community members—to take their gender-dysphoric children to “safe places” that would affirm a cross-sex identity. Because of the new laws, the parents allege concrete present harms: one mother stopped disciplining her daughter for fear of provoking a runaway situation that would trigger the statute; another parent ceased using her daughter’s given name in public to avoid conflict; and two parents stopped discussing gender with or near their daughter entirely. The parents sued Washington state officials in the Western District of Washington shortly after the laws took effect, arguing the statutes violated their constitutional rights to direct their children’s upbringing, refuse medical treatment on their children’s behalf, raise their children consistent with their religious faith, and speak freely on matters of gender. After the parents filed a First Amended Complaint in November 2023, the district court dismissed the action with prejudice for lack of standing in May 2024, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit affirmed in July 2025, with the court denying rehearing en banc in December 2025 over the dissents of three judges who concluded the parents had adequately alleged both present and future injuries sufficient to confer standing.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Judicial Power cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court conservative | At argument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes judicial restraint and the importance of proper standing to avoid advisory opinions, but he has also shown concern for fundamental parental rights. His vote may hinge on whether the alleged harms are sufficiently concrete and imminent. | 57% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 197 votes | 61% lower court conservative · 734 votes | not yet argued |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas is a strong proponent of originalism and often takes a broad view of individual liberties, particularly those rooted in historical understandings, which would likely include parental rights. He has also expressed skepticism about expansive government power that infringes on family autonomy. | 57% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 57% Judicial Power · 388 votes | 43% lower court conservative · 1,365 votes | not yet argued |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito has consistently championed parental rights as fundamental liberty interests, as evidenced by his statement in Lee v. Poudre Sch. Dist. R-1, directly cited in the question presented. He is likely to scrutinize any state action that he perceives as undermining parental authority. | 57% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 65% Judicial Power · 190 votes | 48% lower court conservative · 722 votes | not yet argued |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor generally emphasizes access to justice and may be inclined to find standing where individuals allege significant harm to fundamental rights. However, she also considers the state's interest in protecting vulnerable populations, which could include minors. | 57% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 58% Judicial Power · 149 votes | 76% lower court conservative · 594 votes | not yet argued |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan often focuses on the practical implications of legal doctrines and has a nuanced approach to standing, seeking to ensure that courts address genuine disputes. She may consider the practical impact of these laws on families and the ability of parents to raise their children. | 63% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 61% Judicial Power · 137 votes | 75% lower court conservative · 543 votes | not yet argued |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch often emphasizes textualism and originalism, and he has shown a willingness to protect individual liberties against government overreach. His jurisprudence suggests a strong inclination to uphold fundamental parental rights, especially when state action directly interferes with family decisions. | 63% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 69% Judicial Power · 83 votes | 59% lower court conservative · 286 votes | not yet argued |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh generally takes a pragmatic approach and has often sided with protecting fundamental rights, including parental rights, while also respecting federalism. His decision may depend on the clarity of the alleged injury and the directness of the state's interference. | 57% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 73% Judicial Power · 62 votes | 62% lower court conservative · 244 votes | not yet argued |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett often emphasizes original meaning and textualism, and she has shown a strong interest in religious liberty and family autonomy. She is likely to be sympathetic to arguments that these laws infringe on parents' rights to direct their children's upbringing and religious education. | 57% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 71% Judicial Power · 49 votes | 60% lower court conservative · 178 votes | not yet argued |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often considers the real-world impact of laws on individuals and communities, and she may be attentive to arguments about the vulnerability of minors and the state's role in their welfare. Her approach to standing often balances procedural requirements with substantive justice concerns. | 63% International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 60% Judicial Power · 37 votes | 80% lower court conservative · 127 votes | not yet argued |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.