Democratic
Zoe Lofgren
Incumbent representative for CA-18. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 18 election, 2026
Zoe Lofgren vs. Shane Lewis on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Zoe Lofgren favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+33.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+29.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Shane Lewis
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-18. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Zoe LofgrenDEM · incumbent$2.0M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $602k30% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$325k
- Technology & Communications$75k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$50k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
- Legal & Professional Services$37k
States
- CA$538k
- DC$44k
- NY$21k
- MD$20k
- TX$14k
Shane LewisREP$115k raised
Spent $111kCash on hand $4kDebts $62k8% from donors under $200Self-funded $64k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$23k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$521
States
- CA$25k
- WA$4k
- TX$4k
- GA$4k
- NY$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-18; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in California's 18th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗