VotePredictor
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California District 40 election, 2026

Ken Calvert vs. Young Kim, both Republicans, in the top-two general election on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Republicans hold the seat either way
Both finalists are Republicans; the model forecasts a Democrat against a Republican, so it does not pick between them.
2024 presidential margin
R+12.6
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Ken Calvert

Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.

Other listed republican candidates: Young Kim.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-40. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Young KimREP · incumbent$10.1M raised
Spent $11.0MCash on hand $911kDebts $152k22% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. KIM VICTORY FUND$737k
  2. GROW THE MAJORITY$533k
  3. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$165k
  4. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$151k
  5. GOP WINNING WOMEN 2026$135k

Industries

  1. Retired$2.4M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$122k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$118k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$63k
  5. Homemaker$56k

States

  1. CA$1.5M
  2. TX$320k
  3. FL$309k
  4. VA$174k
  5. GA$129k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Ken CalvertREP · incumbent$7.1M raised
Spent $6.3MCash on hand $980kDebts $2k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. CALVERT VICTORY FUND$1.2M
  2. GROW THE MAJORITY PAC$474k
  3. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$283k
  4. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS PAC$168k
  5. OCKO, MATTHEW$15k

Industries

  1. Retired$393k
  2. Defense & Aerospace$320k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$173k
  4. Government Relations and Lobbying Services$134k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$134k

States

  1. CA$851k
  2. VA$457k
  3. FL$223k
  4. DC$201k
  5. NY$130k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-40; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CA-4 · CA-41