Democratic
Frank J. Mrvan
Incumbent representative for IN-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Indiana District 1 election, 2026
Frank J. Mrvan vs. Barb Regnitz. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Frank J. Mrvan favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+9.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+0.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±3.7 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Barb Regnitz
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IN-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Frank J. MrvanDEM · incumbent$3.0M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $772k7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$495k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$141k
- Legal & Professional Services$113k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$97k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$28k
States
- IN$616k
- IL$219k
- NY$138k
- CA$109k
- DC$38k
Barb RegnitzREP$2.8M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $504kDebts $2.0M1% from donors under $200Self-funded $2.3M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$92k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$30k
- Not Reported$13k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$6k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$5k
States
- IN$198k
- WY$7k
- MI$7k
- FL$6k
- NY$5k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IN-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Top GOP campaign chief smacked with ethics complaint over secret video scheme
The head of the House Republicans’ campaign committee is facing an ethics complaint over allegations that he used footage of official congressional proceedings to target vulnerable Democrats with just over two months before the midterm elections.Rep. Richard …
Raw Story · August 25, 2026
This Democratic Nominee for Governor Refuses to Condemn Data Centers
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThe nationwide backlash to data centers has become so widespread that it’s even ha…
The New Republic · August 25, 2026
House Progressive Chair Says 'Every Single Cent' of Trump Tariff Refunds Should Go to Consumers
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) said on Monday that "every single cent" of the refunds for President Donald Trump's illegal tariffs should go to consumers who bore the brunt of the financial strain rather than the large corporation…
Common Dreams · August 3, 2026
Dem confronts Commerce Secretary for laughing at union job losses
Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) confronted Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick during a House Appropriations Committee hearing on Thursday, after Lutnick appeared to laugh while discussing job losses affecting Mrvan's Indiana district. Mrvan described British Petroleum…
Raw Story · April 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗