Democratic
Joshua Kolasinski
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 4 election, 2026
Joshua Kolasinski vs. Jim Jordan on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Jim Jordan favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+37.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+43.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jim Jordan
Incumbent representative for OH-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Tracey Tackett · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OH-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Eric Schmitt’s a Joke.
The Assaults on Jack Smith Are Anything But.
We’ve all had our laughs now at Eric Schmitt. I plan on continuing to laugh at him for quite some time. That was the most embarrassing thing I’ve ever seen a United States senator do. But it was also two other things besides embarrassing.First, it was deeply …
The New Republic · October 2, 2026
Jack Smith stresses strength of Trump cases, says he will not be ‘silenced’ by threats
WASHINGTON (AP) — Former Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith, who brought two federal indictments against President Donald Trump, told lawmakers on Tuesday that he “will not be silenced by continued threats of prosecution” from the Trump administrat…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 29, 2026
If Democrats Win Control of Congress in the Midterms, Will They Impeach Trump a Third Time?
With the US midterm elections less than six weeks away and Republicans' congressional majorities at risk, both GOP and Democratic leaders are discussing the possibility that a Democratic-controlled Congress could impeach President Donald Trump a historic thir…
Common Dreams · September 27, 2026
Jim Jordan frets over probes of allies: 'They're going to investigate Cabinet secretaries'
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) warned Sunday that if Democrats win back the House, they will go after President Donald Trump, his family, his cabinet and even private businesses, The Hill reported."They say they're not going to, but we know they will –– they'll do …
Raw Story · September 27, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗