Democratic
John Vincent
Major-party general-election nominee.
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South Carolina District 7 election, 2026
John Vincent vs. Russell Fry. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Russell Fry favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+14.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+26.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+4.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+21.1.
Republican
Russell Fry
Incumbent representative for SC-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Russell FryREP · incumbent$2.0M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $159k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- TEAM FRY$259k
- ORLOWSKI, DIANE$7k
- ARNOLD, JOHN$7k
- BOYCE, AUSTIN$7k
- BRODIE, T FURMAN$7k
Industries
- Retired$78k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$55k
- Legal & Professional Services$35k
- Homemaker$34k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$33k
States
- SC$438k
- DC$57k
- FL$53k
- VA$39k
- TX$23k
John VincentDEM$640k raised
Spent $570kCash on hand $70k76% from donors under $200Self-funded $11k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$110k
- Retired$68k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$18k
- Defense & Aerospace$3k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$1k
States
- SC$185k
- VA$11k
- CA$11k
- TX$7k
- FL$6k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for SC-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in South Carolina's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Democrats saw a stunning South Carolina upset coming. They kept it secret.
The Scoop As soon as Republican Sen. Darline Graham won the GOP nomination to replace her late brother in August, Democrat Annie Andrews made her move. Andrews immediately began spending more than $5 million on advertising in South Carolina’s Senate race at…
Semafor.com · November 4, 2026
Ralph Norman under pressure from fellow South Carolina Republicans to campaign for Darline Graham
Rep. Russell Fry says fellow South Carolina Republican Rep. Ralph Norman should be doing more to help GOP Sen. Darline Graham win election to a full term in the Senate. "As somebody who carried the conservative banner as long as he has, he should step into th…
Biztoc.com · October 26, 2026
Russell Fry endorses ex-rival Darline Graham after failing to advance to special GOP US Senate primary runoff
Rep. Russell Fry, who placed third in the South Carolina special GOP U.S. Senate primary, endorsed Sen. Darline Graham ahead of the runoff in which she will face Rep. Ralph Norman.
Fox News · August 17, 2026
Darline Graham Picks Up Another Key Endorsement
Sen. Darline Graham just received another key endorsement in her bid to keep her late brother's seat for a full term . Rep. Russell Fry, who finished third in this week's South Carolina primary, endorsed Graham on Friday in the runoff later this month, per th…
Newser · August 14, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗