Democratic
Mike Croley
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Tennessee District 6 election, 2026
Mike Croley vs. Johnny Garrett on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Johnny Garrett favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+19.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+26.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Johnny Garrett
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Christopher Monday · Independent
- Angus Purdy · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TN-6. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Johnny GarrettREP$3.0M raised
Spent $2.7MCash on hand $343kDebts $1.6M8% from donors under $200Self-funded $1.3M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GARRETT, JOHNNY$1.2M
- TEAM GARRETT$44k
- HODGES, MICHAEL L.$14k
- ISAACSON, RICHARD$14k
- GREGORY, TONY$11k
Industries
- Retired$309k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$113k
- Homemaker$67k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$43k
- Legal & Professional Services$18k
States
- TN$847k
- TX$34k
- FL$31k
- CA$23k
- VA$19k
Mike CroleyDEM$117k raised
Spent $103kCash on hand $14k35% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$26k
- Not Reported$10k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$5k
- Legal & Professional Services$5k
States
- TN$66k
- AL$500
- CA$280
- FL$250
- IN$250
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TN-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗