Democratic
Yolanda Prince
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 1 election, 2026
Yolanda Prince vs. Nathaniel Moran on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Nathaniel Moran favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+53.7
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+49.92026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Nathaniel Moran
Incumbent representative for TX-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Protecting Workers From AI Is Easier Said Than Done
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 7, 2026
The Manufactured 'Bipartisan' Push For An AI Kill Switch
The Manufactured 'Bipartisan' Push For An AI Kill Switch Authored by Jordan Schachtel via American Greatness, The AI Kill Switch Act, introduced Thursday by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas), seeks to hand the government unpreceden…
Biztoc.com · July 24, 2026
A rogue AI hacked Hugging Face. Now Congress wants a kill switch.
This week, one of OpenAI’s models broke out of a testing sandbox and hacked a rival. Congress has a reply: build a kill switch, and let the government use it. On Thursday, Reps. Ted Lieu, a California Democrat, and Nathaniel Moran, a Texas Republican, introdu…
The Next Web · July 24, 2026
ChatGPT’s Daring Escape Forces Dems to Pick a Path on AI Legislation
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗