Democratic
Yolanda Prince
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Texas District 1 election, 2026
Yolanda Prince vs. Nathaniel Moran on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Nathaniel Moran favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+42.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+49.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nathaniel Moran
Incumbent representative for TX-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Nathaniel MoranREP · incumbent$2.4M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $960k18% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$174k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$40k
- Legal & Professional Services$25k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$24k
- Technology & Communications$18k
States
- TX$264k
- CA$61k
- VA$50k
- DC$41k
- FL$38k
Yolanda PrinceDEM$33k raised
Spent $20kCash on hand $8kDebts $10k1% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
States
- TX$11k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Protecting Workers From AI Is Easier Said Than Done
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 7, 2026
The Manufactured 'Bipartisan' Push For An AI Kill Switch
The Manufactured 'Bipartisan' Push For An AI Kill Switch Authored by Jordan Schachtel via American Greatness, The AI Kill Switch Act, introduced Thursday by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas), seeks to hand the government unpreceden…
Biztoc.com · July 24, 2026
A rogue AI hacked Hugging Face. Now Congress wants a kill switch.
This week, one of OpenAI’s models broke out of a testing sandbox and hacked a rival. Congress has a reply: build a kill switch, and let the government use it. On Thursday, Reps. Ted Lieu, a California Democrat, and Nathaniel Moran, a Texas Republican, introdu…
The Next Web · July 24, 2026
ChatGPT’s Daring Escape Forces Dems to Pick a Path on AI Legislation
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗