Democratic
Claire Reynolds
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 11 election, 2026
Claire Reynolds vs. August Pfluger on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
August Pfluger favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+34.82026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
August Pfluger
Incumbent representative for TX-11. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-11. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026August PflugerREP · incumbent$3.6M raised
Spent $3.9MCash on hand $2.0M8% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$222k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$33k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$17k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$14k
- Unemployed$13k
States
- TX$189k
- FL$46k
- NY$44k
- CA$41k
- VA$40k
Claire ReynoldsDEM$129k raised
Spent $73kCash on hand $56kDebts $3k28% from donors under $200Self-funded $5
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$27k
- Technology & Communications$10k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$9k
- Education & Academia$8k
- Retired$1k
States
- TX$58k
- CA$19k
- OH$3k
- MA$1k
- MO$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 11th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Emmer and Pfluger make plans to run for House Republican whip
The race for House minority whip is shaping up to be a contest between the current House majority whip, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, and Republican Study Committee Chair August Pfluger of Texas. Emmer, who already said he had planned to run for the job regardless …
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
RSC Chairman August Pfluger: Undercover Video Shows James Talarico Has Not Changed His Views on Transgender Issues
Republican Study Committee Chairman August Pfluger (R-TX) criticized Texas Democrat U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico over undercover footage in which the candidate maintained that his views on transgender issues had not changed, arguing that voters could …
Breitbart News · October 31, 2026
Pfluger Touts Republican Study Committee’s Transformation Into ‘Governing Force’ On 53rd Anniversary
By VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | October 25, 2026 The Republican Study Committee, now the largest caucus on Capitol Hill, is celebrating 53 years in Congress this week. The 190 Republican members are currently led by Chairman August Pfluger of T…
Biztoc.com · October 27, 2026
Republicans corner Trump's trade guy behind closed doors as tariffs start to bite
House Republicans confronted U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer behind closed doors Wednesday, pressing him on the economic damage President Trump's escalating trade war with Canada could inflict on their home states — just days before a fresh round of …
Raw Story · September 2, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗