Democratic
Adam Gray
Incumbent representative for CA-13. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 13 election, 2026
Adam Gray vs. Kevin Lincoln on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Adam Gray favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+7.1
96%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+0.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±3.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Kevin Lincoln
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-13. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Adam GrayDEM · incumbent$5.2M raised
Spent $4.6MCash on hand $849k21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$948k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$251k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$177k
- Legal & Professional Services$68k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$63k
States
- CA$1.2M
- NY$241k
- MA$228k
- DC$90k
- MD$63k
Kevin LincolnREP$3.0M raised
Spent $2.5MCash on hand $448kDebts $26k33% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$515k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$72k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$61k
- Technology & Communications$22k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$21k
States
- CA$674k
- TX$97k
- FL$53k
- VA$29k
- AZ$21k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-13; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Dems Campaigned on Affordability. But Can They Deliver?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington “We campaigned as affordability Democrats. That was the message of every single c…
The New Republic · November 6, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump
House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Against Trump's Wishes, Calif. Young Republicans Group Endorses Democrat
In an unexpected move, a group of young Republicans endorsed a Democrat running in their Central Valley district instead of his Donald Trump-endorsed opponent. That bold move could cost that local chapter its official standing. Last week, the Madera Young Rep…
Freerepublic.com · July 29, 2026
From Swalwell to Gallego to Gray: Democrats’ Slush Fund Scandal Spreads
**SNIP** Now another person with close ties to Swalwell appears to be using his campaign account like a personal slush fund. That's Adam Gray, who was co-chair of Swalwell's failed gubernatorial campaign. Gray, who was once a member of the California Assembly…
Freerepublic.com · July 26, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗