Democratic
Aisha Wahab
Incumbent representative for CA-14. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed democratic candidates: Melissa Hernandez.
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California District 14 election, 2026
Aisha Wahab vs. Melissa Hernandez, both Democrats, in the top-two general election on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Democrats hold the seat either way
Both finalists are Democrats; the model forecasts a Democrat against a Republican, so it does not pick between them.
2024 presidential margin
D+36.22026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Democratic
Melissa Hernandez
Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.
Other listed democratic candidates: Aisha Wahab.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-14. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Melissa HernandezDEM$2.1M raised
Spent $2.0MCash on hand $108kDebts $19k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- BALCH, JACK$12k
- CROTINGER, WILLIAM$11k
- DOSANJH, INDER$11k
- DUBINSKY, DONNA$11k
- KENT, DAVID$11k
Industries
- Unemployed$588k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$214k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$171k
- Legal & Professional Services$70k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$29k
States
- CA$1.0M
- NY$197k
- FL$158k
- MA$59k
- IL$49k
Aisha WahabDEM$1.2M raised
Spent $752kCash on hand $462kDebts $15k10% from donors under $200Self-funded $39k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- WAHAB, AISHA$39k
- QUILLIN, PATTY$14k
- DELANEY, M. QUINN$11k
- JORDAN, WAYNE$11k
- MAURICE, NATHALY$11k
Industries
- Not Reported$292k
- Technology & Communications$48k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$28k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$17k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$10k
States
- CA$620k
- VA$40k
- NY$33k
- TX$15k
- IL$13k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-14; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗