Democratic
Brad Sherman
Incumbent representative for CA-32. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 32 election, 2026
Brad Sherman vs. Larry Thompson on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Brad Sherman favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+32.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+25.82026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Larry Thompson
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-32. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Brad ShermanDEM · incumbent$2.9M raised
Spent $4.1MCash on hand $2.7MDebts $5k3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$255k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$229k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$144k
- Unemployed$107k
- Legal & Professional Services$67k
States
- CA$994k
- NY$95k
- FL$62k
- MA$54k
- MD$32k
Larry ThompsonREP$66k raised
Spent $59kCash on hand $7kDebts $38k4% from donors under $200Self-funded $56k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$4k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$500
States
- CA$5k
- FL$2k
- LA$1k
- NY$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-32; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
'Bogus as hell': Trump's rosy Saudi nuclear pitch kneecapped by his own intel
A classified U.S. intelligence assessment has found that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out building a nuclear weapons program, cutting against President Donald Trump's pitch for a deal that could let the kingdom enrich its own uranium.The assessment was part of …
Raw Story · September 25, 2026
California shoppers with disabilities say mall skincare stores pressured them into spending thousands; one man says he spent more than $50,000, and a congressman is now seeking state scrutiny
Serious allegations have arisen against Bee & Co., claiming that the company coerced vulnerable customers, including seniors and individuals with disabilities, into making costly purchases. Rep. Brad Sherman is set to bring these alarming issues to the attent…
The Times of India · September 24, 2026
Rep. Brad Sherman warns Israel over government policies eroding U.S. support
The California Democrat says West Bank settler violence, far-right minister Ben-Gvir and Israel's failure to invest in global diplomacy are worsening its standing with Americans, warning that could cut off U.S. weapons and diplomatic backing
Haaretz · September 19, 2026
US Representative: 'Ben Gvir in the Cabinet is an existential threat'
Brad Sherman, one of Israel’s most prominent supporters in Congress, warns of a collapse in public support for Israel in the United States.
Israelnationalnews.com · September 19, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗