Democratic
Pete Aguilar
Incumbent representative for CA-33. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 33 election, 2026
Pete Aguilar vs. Stephanie Vargas on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Pete Aguilar favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+12.5
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+9.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Stephanie Vargas
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-33. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-33; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Democrats’ Plan for Ending the Iran War
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 22, 2026
Congress to Vote on New Lebanon War Powers Resolution as Israel's Occupation Threatens to Blow Up Iran-US Peace Deal
As Israel's continued assault on Lebanon threatens to derail peace negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran, the US House of Representatives is expected to hold another vote on Tuesday on a war powers resolution that could halt American support …
Common Dreams · June 29, 2026
As Spying Renewal Stalls in Congress, Trump Pulls Plug on Pulte for DNI
After privacy advocates in Congress blocked proposed extensions of an expiring federal spying power on Thursday over a lack of reforms and concerns about newly appointed acting Director of National Intelligence Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump announced a d…
Common Dreams · June 11, 2026
‘The People of Lebanon Can’t Wait,’ Says Tlaib After Dem Leaders Join With GOP to Vote Down War Powers Resolutions
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries helped Republicans tank Rep. Rashida Tlaib’s war powers resolution to limit US military involvement in Lebanon on Thursday, holding up the effort to curb the conflict for at least another several weeks.Despite Israel’s …
Common Dreams · June 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗