Democratic
Pete Aguilar
Incumbent representative for CA-33. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 33 election, 2026
Pete Aguilar vs. Stephanie Vargas on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Pete Aguilar favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+16.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+10.12026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Stephanie Vargas
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-33. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Pete AguilarDEM · incumbent$5.7M raised
Spent $5.7MCash on hand $2.7M5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$259k
- Unemployed$204k
- Legal & Professional Services$135k
- Retired$125k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$101k
States
- CA$704k
- NY$198k
- DC$197k
- MD$116k
- FL$91k
Stephanie VargasREP$721 raised
Spent $200Cash on hand $52128% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- WIILIAMS, OMAR$520
States
- CA$520
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-33; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗