Democratic
Norma Torres
Incumbent representative for CA-35. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 35 election, 2026
Norma Torres vs. Mike Cargile on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Norma Torres favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+13.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+8.12026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mike Cargile
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-35. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Norma TorresDEM · incumbent$923k raised
Spent $981kCash on hand $245kDebts $1015% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$56k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$25k
- Legal & Professional Services$15k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$15k
- Unemployed$7k
States
- CA$127k
- MA$26k
- NY$25k
- CO$24k
- DC$16k
Mike CargileREP$10k raised
Spent $10kCash on hand $448Debts $6k17% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$7k
States
- CA$8k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-35; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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Raw Story · May 12, 2026
Trump admin gets stern warning over move that would 'run afoul' of court order
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Raw Story · January 15, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗