Democratic
Robert Garcia
Incumbent representative for CA-42. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
California District 42 election, 2026
Robert Garcia vs. Brian Burley on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Robert Garcia favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+20.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+13.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Brian Burley
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-42. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Robert GarciaDEM · incumbent$3.4M raised
Spent $2.2MCash on hand $1.6M44% from donors under $200Self-funded $38
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$361k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$123k
- Legal & Professional Services$116k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$30k
States
- CA$615k
- DC$104k
- NY$52k
- VA$48k
- FL$40k
Brian BurleyREP$251k raised
Spent $255kCash on hand $2kDebts $133k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $186k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$20k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$1k
States
- CA$27k
- TX$2k
- FL$2k
- PA$2k
- IL$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-42; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Garcia: 'Trump Crime Family,' ICE Officials, CEOs Should 'Lawyer Up'
On Thursday’s broadcast of MS NOW’s “The Last Word,” Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) said now that Democrats control Congress, the “Trump crime family,” ICE and DHS officials, and American CEOs who worked with the administration should “lawyer up.” Host Lawrence Th…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Meet the California Democrat with Trump at the top of his enemies list — and the power to go after him
Meet Democrat Robert Garcia, incoming chairman of the House Oversight Committee.
New York Post · Yesterday
Rep. Garcia says voters gave Democrats a mandate to pursue accountability
With Democrats set to take control of the House, they are making plans to use their majority not only to advance legislation but also to ramp up congressional oversight. California Rep. Robert Garcia is expected to become the new chairman of the House Oversig…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Rep. Garcia says voters gave Democrats a mandate to pursue accountability
With Democrats set to take control of the House, they are making plans to use their majority not only to advance legislation but also to ramp up congressional oversight. California Rep. Robert Garcia is expected to become the new chairman of the House Oversig…
PBS · November 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗