Democratic
Maxine Waters
Incumbent representative for CA-43. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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California District 43 election, 2026
Maxine Waters vs. Cristian Morales on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Maxine Waters favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+54.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+50.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Cristian Morales
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-43. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Maxine WatersDEM · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $105kDebts $142k3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$58k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$25k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$24k
- Unemployed$20k
- Technology & Communications$15k
States
- CA$223k
- DC$44k
- MD$22k
- TX$20k
- FL$16k
Cristian MoralesREP$15k raised
Spent $14kCash on hand $539Debts $13k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$2k
States
- CA$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-43; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
When Buy Now, Pay Later Can Mean You’re Paying a Whole Lot More Later
We’ve all encountered this newish feature of online shopping that can sometimes seem too good to be true. You need to make a major purchase costing a few hundred dollars—an amount most of us will definitely feel. But you need the item.Then, up pops a screen o…
The New Republic · October 28, 2026
Young Democrats Go After Maxine Waters, Seem To Regret Their Decision
A center-left group representing young Democrats deleted a post criticizing Democratic California Rep. Maxine Waters’ age.
The Daily Caller · October 26, 2026
Democrats Should Get Behind a National AI Data Center Moratorium
It’s becoming clear that one of the most potent political issues of this election cycle is the debate over artificial intelligence and the massive data centers powering this rapidly evolving technology. Polling consistently shows that Americans overwhelmingly…
Common Dreams · October 21, 2026
Maxine Waters urges Congress to delay crypto laws amid presidential profits
Waters' push to delay crypto laws highlights the need for conflict-of-interest safeguards, impacting legislative progress and market stability. The post Maxine Waters urges Congress to delay crypto laws amid presidential profits appeared first on Crypto Brief…
Crypto Briefing · September 17, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗