Democratic
Paul Nolley
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Darin LaHood favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+17.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+23.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Darin LaHood
Incumbent representative for IL-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IL-16. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Illinois's 16th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
‘Flattered!’ Republican’s rant backfires as Kaitlan Collins hits him with brutal supercut
A Texas Republican's attempt to bash CNN backfired spectacularly when Kaitlan Collins hit him with a devastating supercut smacking down his claims live on air.Brian Harrison, a Republican member of the Texas House of Representatives representing District 10, …
Raw Story · August 5, 2025
'Not my favorite': Republicans bristle as Trump again caves on TikTok ban
Republicans on Capitol Hill expressed disappointment on Friday that President Donald Trump one again punted on enforcing a ban on TikTok.This week marked the third deadline extension Trump has granted for TikTok's sale or ban since returning to office. The mo…
Raw Story · June 21, 2025
GOP Rep. LaHood: Can't Bail Out States Like Mine with High SALT Deduction
On Friday’s broadcast of Newsmax TV’s “The Record,” Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) stated that “we can’t be bailing out high-tax states like New York, California, Connecticut, New Jersey, even Illinois, my home state” by having a high SALT deduction, which The post…
Breitbart News · May 10, 2025
'How long can this go on?' Republican pressed after admitting Americans will feel 'pain'
Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) told CNN's Brianna Keilar that he isn't shocked that American automakers are hiking prices because President Donald Trump said that there would be "some short-term pain" as a result of his tariffs. LaHood committed to Trump's language…
Raw Story · May 7, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗