Democratic
Paul Nolley
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Illinois District 16 election, 2026
Paul Nolley vs. Darin LaHood. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Darin LaHood favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+23.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Darin LaHood
Incumbent representative for IL-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IL-16. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Darin LaHoodREP · incumbent$4.2M raised
Spent $3.7MCash on hand $6.0M2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Legal & Professional Services$99k
- Not Reported$95k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$69k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$40k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$39k
States
- IL$363k
- VA$84k
- DC$71k
- NY$42k
- CA$41k
Paul NolleyDEM$639k raised
Spent $580kCash on hand $59k26% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$155k
- Retired$46k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$14k
- Not Reported$14k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$13k
States
- IL$336k
- IN$3k
- WI$2k
- MN$2k
- MD$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Illinois's 16th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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GOP Rep. LaHood: Can't Bail Out States Like Mine with High SALT Deduction
On Friday’s broadcast of Newsmax TV’s “The Record,” Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) stated that “we can’t be bailing out high-tax states like New York, California, Connecticut, New Jersey, even Illinois, my home state” by having a high SALT deduction, which The post…
Breitbart News · May 10, 2025
'How long can this go on?' Republican pressed after admitting Americans will feel 'pain'
Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) told CNN's Brianna Keilar that he isn't shocked that American automakers are hiking prices because President Donald Trump said that there would be "some short-term pain" as a result of his tariffs. LaHood committed to Trump's language…
Raw Story · May 7, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗