Democratic
Jennifer Todd
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Illinois District 15 election, 2026
Jennifer Todd vs. Mary Miller. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mary Miller favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+32.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+40.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mary Miller
Incumbent representative for IL-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IL-15. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mary MillerREP · incumbent$1.9M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $911k56% from donors under $200Self-funded $100
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$422k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$43k
- Homemaker$18k
- Defense & Aerospace$7k
- Wholesale & Distribution$6k
States
- IL$382k
- TX$41k
- FL$25k
- CA$24k
- MO$11k
Jennifer ToddDEM$210k raised
Spent $173kCash on hand $37k40% from donors under $200Self-funded $140
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$21k
- Unemployed$16k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$9k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$2k
- Government$1k
States
- IL$99k
- DE$500
- NY$500
- TN$500
- VA$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Belief in Action: Reps Mary Miller and Riley Moore Share How Faith Influences Their Lives
By MALIA LOOCK, The Daily Signal | September 18, 2026 U.S. Reps Mary Miller, R-Ill., and Riley Moore, R-W. W.Va., joined Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts on Tuesday to discuss their Christian faith and its influence on their work in Congress. The …
Biztoc.com · September 21, 2026
Belief in Action: Reps Mary Miller and Riley Moore Share How Faith Influences Their Lives
U.S. Reps Mary Miller, R-Ill., and Riley Moore, R-W. W.Va., joined Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts on Tuesday to discuss their Christian faith and its influence on their work in Congress. The conversation about representing both Christianity and …
Daily Signal · September 18, 2026
Every House Member Who’s Still Not at Work After a Five-Week Vacation
The House of Representatives has returned from its five-week summer vacation, but for more than three dozen members that extended break apparently wasn’t enough.According to the House clerk, 46 lawmakers failed to make it back to Washington in time for the fi…
The New Republic · September 1, 2026
Moment head of top California medical school squirms when asked whether only women can get pregnant
The head of one the country’s top medical schools sparked outrage during a tense House hearing after refusing to say that only women can get pregnant. Dr. Sam Hawgood, chancellor of the University of California San Francisco, was pressed by Washington lawmake…
Freerepublic.com · July 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗