Illinois District 4 election, 2026

Patty Garcia vs. Lupe Castillo.

VotePredictor forecast

Patty Garcia favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+45.4

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+32.5

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Patty Garcia

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Lupe Castillo

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Chris Getty · Independent
Ed Hershey · Working Class

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

The Bullfinch Group2026-08-04D+19.0

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IL-3 · IL-5