Democratic
Mike Quigley
Incumbent representative for IL-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Illinois District 5 election, 2026
Mike Quigley vs. Tommy Hanson. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Quigley favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+45.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+37.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tommy Hanson
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IL-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike QuigleyDEM · incumbent$998k raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $1.1M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$33k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$25k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$24k
- Legal & Professional Services$21k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$17k
States
- IL$181k
- DC$28k
- TX$8k
- MD$7k
- NY$7k
Tommy HansonREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Rep. Mike Quigley, D-Ill., on reports Ukraine's Starshield access was restricted
NPR's Michel Martin speaks with Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois about reports that SpaceX temporarily restricted access to its Starshield in Ukraine, affecting the country's war efforts.
NPR · October 15, 2026
Democrats Officially File Articles of Impeachment Against Pete Hegseth
Democrats are mounting a formal opposition to oust Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Arizona Representative Yassamin Ansari filed six articles of impeachment against the Pentagon chief Wednesday, accusing Hegseth of repeatedly violating his constitutional oath.…
The New Republic · April 15, 2026
Mike Quigley wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in Illinois' 5th Congressional District
Mike Quigley wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in Illinois' 5th Congressional District
Abcnews.com · March 18, 2026
Rep. Mike Quigley, D-Ill., talks about ICE reforms ahead of DHS funding deadline
NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks with Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois about DHS funding and ICE reforms ahead of Friday's deadline to avert a partial government shutdown.
NPR · February 11, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗