Democratic
Mary Allen
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Indiana District 8 election, 2026
Mary Allen vs. Mark Messmer. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mark Messmer favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+28.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+36.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mark Messmer
Incumbent representative for IN-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IN-8. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mark MessmerREP · incumbent$1.4M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $551k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$37k
- Legal & Professional Services$25k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$19k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$17k
States
- IN$173k
- FL$25k
- IL$23k
- VA$17k
- MD$8k
Mary AllenDEM$493k raised
Spent $386kCash on hand $108k35% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$91k
- Unemployed$71k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$26k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$3k
- Technology & Communications$2k
States
- IN$277k
- CA$3k
- OH$3k
- MO$1k
- NY$689
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IN-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Indiana's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Amid Deadly Temperatures, GOP Advances Bill to Ban Federal Heat Protections for Workers
A Republican-controlled House committee passed legislation earlier this week that would prevent the US Labor Department from enacting federal standards to protect workers from extreme heat, a move that came amid sweltering heat across the country.The Heat Wor…
Common Dreams · July 24, 2026
Mark Messmer Voting Record
Having a discussion with Mark Messmer candidate for 8th Congressional District on FB. The issue at hand is his voting record concerning illegal immigrants in Indiana. 1st issue is his support of a "Driver's Card" for illegals which died in commitee and theref…
Freerepublic.com · April 28, 2024
Mark Messmer Voting Record
Having a discussion with Mark Messmer candidate for 8th Congressional District on FB. The issue at hand is his voting record concerning illegal immigrants in Indiana. 1st issue is his support of a "Driver's Card" for illegals which died in commitee and theref…
Freerepublic.com · April 28, 2024
GOP House hopeful co-authored bills to provide in-state tuition, driving 'cards' to illegal immigrants
Indiana Republican House hopeful Mark Messmer has supported legislation to provide illegal immigrants with in-state tuition rates and driver's "cards."
Fox News · February 6, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗