Actual result
D+22.0
Final polls said
D+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana State University Department of Multidisciplinary Studies | D+23.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+12.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+10.7 | 11.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | RT Strategies | D+10.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1065 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| Indiana State University Department of Multidisciplinary Studies | 2006-10-09 | 626 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-04 | 442 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| Indiana State University Department of Multidisciplinary Studies | 2006-09-14 | 603 | D+15.0 | 7 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-09-09 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 16 |