Democratic
Ned Pillersdorf
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Kentucky District 5 election, 2026
Ned Pillersdorf vs. Hal Rogers. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Hal Rogers favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+56.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+64.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Hal Rogers
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Gerardo Serrano · Independent
- Mikel Wein · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KY-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Hal RogersREP · incumbent$1.0M raised
Spent $1.3MCash on hand $702k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$48k
- Legal & Professional Services$34k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$30k
- Retired$28k
- Not Reported$20k
States
- KY$308k
- VA$53k
- DC$37k
- CA$23k
- FL$12k
Ned PillersdorfDEM$377k raised
Spent $271kCash on hand $106k11% from donors under $200Self-funded $191k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$46k
- Unemployed$31k
- Legal & Professional Services$3k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$300
- Government$300
States
- KY$99k
- NY$14k
- CA$10k
- KS$6k
- MA$4k
Mikel WeinIND$4k raised
Spent $1kCash on hand $3kDebts $4k6% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KY-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗