Democratic
Melissa Strange
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Ed Gallrein favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+44.4
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+35.22026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Ed Gallrein
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Jeremy Todd · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KY-4. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KY-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Kentucky's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗