VotePredictor
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Kentucky District 4 election, 2026

Melissa Strange vs. Ed Gallrein. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Ed Gallrein favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+28.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+36.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Melissa Strange

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Ed Gallrein

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Jeremy Todd · Libertarian

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KY-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Ed GallreinREP$4.1M raised
Spent $3.7MCash on hand $434k15% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GALLREIN VICTORY FUND$26k
  2. TUCHMAN, MORRIS$14k
  3. GRIFFIN, KENNETH$11k
  4. FRANKLIN, LARRY$7k
  5. GILLIAM, RICHARD$7k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$1.0M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$334k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$293k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$158k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$39k

States

  1. CA$787k
  2. FL$586k
  3. NY$506k
  4. TX$186k
  5. KY$160k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Melissa StrangeDEM$157k raised
Spent $123kCash on hand $41kDebts $20k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $20k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. STRANGE, MELISSA$20k
  2. STRANGE, GINGER$7k
  3. STRANGE, GINNY$7k
  4. STRANGE, PETER$7k
  5. DILLER, EDWARD$5k

Industries

  1. Retired$28k
  2. Unemployed$28k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$9k
  4. Manufacturing & Industrial$3k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$3k

States

  1. KY$63k
  2. OH$37k
  3. FL$2k
  4. IL$400
  5. PA$250
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Jeremy ToddLIB$31k raised
Spent $27kCash on hand $3k25% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. AZZOLLINI, ROBERT$4k
  2. EARL, RACHAEL$4k
  3. RAYMOND, RYAN$4k
  4. TODD, JEREMY$1k
  5. BELCHER, JUSTIN$1k

Industries

  1. Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
  2. Retired$1k
  3. Education & Academia$1k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$500
  5. Not Reported$417

States

  1. KY$10k
  2. AZ$4k
  3. TX$1k
  4. OH$1k
  5. CA$781
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KY-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Kentucky's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2008Geoff Davis(R)R+26.1
2006Geoff Davis(R)R+8.3
2002Kenneth R. Lucas(D)D+3.6
2000Kenneth R. Lucas(D)D+10.8

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: KY-3 · KY-5