VotePredictor
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Louisiana District 1 election, 2026

Lauren Jewett vs. Republican nominee TBD on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Republican favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+31.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+39.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Lauren Jewett

Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.

Republican

Nominee not yet identified

The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.

Other listed republican candidates: Steve Scalise, Randall Arrington.

Other listed candidates

  • Liddy Glass · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for LA-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Steve ScaliseREP · incumbent$11.2M raised
Spent $12.4MCash on hand $2.9M4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. TEAM SCALISE$5.9M
  2. SCALISE LEADERSHIP FUND$1.9M
  3. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$1.4M
  4. ANDREESSEN, MARC$7k
  5. ARRILLAGA-ANDREESSEN, LAURA ARRILLAGA$7k

Industries

  1. Retired$670k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$135k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$106k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$35k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$16k

States

  1. CA$285k
  2. TX$199k
  3. NY$171k
  4. FL$96k
  5. LA$67k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Lauren JewettDEM$716k raised
Spent $560kCash on hand $156k74% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. RATCLIFF, JOHN$7k
  2. ANDERSON, MICHELLE$5k
  3. ERICKSON, SHERYL$4k
  4. COE, CHARLES C$4k
  5. COE, KAREN K$4k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$51k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$21k
  3. Retired$10k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$6k
  5. Education & Academia$3k

States

  1. LA$105k
  2. CA$6k
  3. VT$4k
  4. TX$4k
  5. NY$3k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Randall ArringtonREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for LA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Louisiana's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2008Steve Scalise(R)R+31.4

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: KY-6 · LA-2