Democratic
Stephen Lynch
Incumbent representative for MA-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Massachusetts District 8 election, 2026
Stephen Lynch vs. Robert Burke. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Stephen Lynch favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+38.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+26.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Robert Burke
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Rasheed Walters · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MA-8. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Stephen LynchDEM · incumbent$1.1M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $494k3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$58k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$38k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$23k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$16k
- Retired$15k
States
- MA$538k
- CA$16k
- NY$9k
- RI$7k
- NH$6k
Robert Burke08$2k raised
Spent $13kCash on hand −$17kDebts $2k2% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MA-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch defeats a younger challenger in Massachusetts primary - NBC News
Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch defeats a younger challenger in Massachusetts primaryNBC News Tough primary season for incumbents reaches grand finale in Massachusettsthehill.com Stephen Lynch wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in Massachusetts' 8th Cong…
Slashdot.org · September 2, 2026
Last House Democrat who voted against the ACA survives primary scare
Rep. Stephen Lynch, D-Mass., held off a well-funded primary challenger on Tuesday, extending a House career that began in 2001 and keeping in Congress the only remaining Democrat who voted against the Affordable Care Act. Lynch defeated challenger Patrick Roa…
Biztoc.com · September 2, 2026
Progressive push hits wall against conservative Democrat in deep-blue district
Stephen Lynch defeated progressive challenger Patrick Roath in the Massachusetts 8th Congressional District Democratic primary despite clashes over ICE.
Fox News · September 2, 2026
Stephen Lynch Defeats a Younger Challenger
“Rep. Stephen Lynch has defeated a younger, more progressive primary challenger, in the highest-profile test remaining for House incumbents after a turbulent primary season,” NBC News reports. “The 71-year-old incumbent won renomination over Patrick Roath, a …
Politicalwire.com · September 2, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗