Democratic
Bill Keating
Incumbent representative for MA-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Massachusetts District 9 election, 2026
Bill Keating vs. Tyler MacAllister. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Bill Keating favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+18.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+11.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tyler MacAllister
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MA-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bill KeatingDEM · incumbent$554k raised
Spent $759kCash on hand $461k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$62k
- Legal & Professional Services$24k
- Retired$20k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$17k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$13k
States
- MA$196k
- DC$23k
- MD$9k
- VA$8k
- TX$7k
Tyler MacAllisterREP$215k raised
Spent $162kCash on hand $53kDebts $1k15% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$78k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
- Homemaker$14k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$2k
- Technology & Communications$250
States
- MA$142k
- FL$25k
- NJ$4k
- TX$3k
- ME$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MA-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Massachusetts's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
House Democrats ready oversight of Trump’s Balkans policy
The News Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Europe panel will release a report on Tuesday laying the groundwork for oversight of the Trump administration’s Balkans policy should their party win a majority. The report by Rep. Bill Keating of Ma…
Biztoc.com · September 15, 2026
Meeks, Keating Lead Dems in Letter to Rubio on Politicization of Counter Terrorism
Representative Gregory W. Meeks, Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Bill Keating, Ranking Member of the Europe Subcommittee, led Democrats today in a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio raising concerns that the State Department i…
Globalsecurity.org · July 16, 2026
Rep. Bill Keating, D-Mass., on U.S. military strikes on suspected drug boats
NPR's Leila Fadel speaks with Democratic Rep. Bill Keating of Massachusetts about continued U.S. military strikes on suspected drug boats in Pacific and Caribbean waters.
NPR · May 8, 2026
86 Democrats Condemn Socialism as Zohran Mamdani Meets With Trump
In a country where the cost of living skyrockets while wages remain low, where a few broken bones can leave you in financial ruin, and where the young feel they have no chance at any upward mobility, 86 House Democrats joined Republicans to pass a resolution …
The New Republic · November 21, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗