Democratic
Glenn Ivey
Incumbent representative for MD-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Maryland District 4 election, 2026
Glenn Ivey vs. George McDermott. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Glenn Ivey favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+81.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+74.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
George McDermott
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Sam Husseini · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Glenn IveyDEM$887k raised
Spent $699kCash on hand $494k13% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$44k
- Legal & Professional Services$42k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$36k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$25k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
States
- MD$183k
- DC$62k
- VA$39k
- FL$13k
- TX$8k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Rep. Glenn Ivey weighs stopgap spending bill as House returns to Washington
NPR's A Martinez speaks with Democratic Rep. Glenn Ivey of Maryland, as the House reconvenes this week with a stopgap spending bill on the agenda.
NPR · August 31, 2026
Rep. Glenn Ivey. D-Md., discusses what's on the agenda as the House reconvenes
NPR's A Martinez speaks with Democratic Rep. Glenn Ivey of Maryland, as the House reconvenes this week with a stopgap spending bill on the agenda.
NPR · August 31, 2026
Rep. Glenn Ivey and Minnesota AG Keith Ellison on police reform 6 years after George Floyd's murder
Six years after his murder in Minneapolis, and despite passing the House twice, the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act remains stalled in the Senate. Some lawmakers are hoping to change that. Democratic Rep. Glenn Ivey of Maryland and Minnesota Attorney Gen…
CBS News · May 22, 2026
USDA Moves to Shutter Maryland Research Facility (Tyler Spence/NOTUS)
Tyler Spence / NOTUS: USDA Moves to Shutter Maryland Research Facility — Rep. Glenn Ivey, who represents the area, said decommissioning the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center could “dramatically” disrupt scientific research. — Copy — The Agriculture…
Memeorandum.com · April 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗