Democratic
Sarah Elfreth
Incumbent representative for MD-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Sarah Elfreth favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+29.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+24.52026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Berney Flowers
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-3. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
'All-time low!' MAGA melts down as frustrated Dems stage 'sit-in' at ICE facility
MAGA melted down Monday afternoon as a Democratic senator staged a sit-in after being barred from a federal immigration detention facility in Baltimore.Frustrated members of Maryland’s congressional delegation unsuccessfully tried to appeal to an Immigration …
Raw Story · July 28, 2025
Dems Rally Against Audit of Social Security [semi-satire]
Last week Democrats rallied outside the Baltimore office of the Social Security Administration demanding "Musk, keep your hands off of our Social Security." Those in attendance at the demonstration included Maryland Senators Chris Van Hollen and Angela Alsobr…
Freerepublic.com · February 17, 2025
The slow death of DC Democrats’ Jan. 6 politics
Democrats bet big on January 6. It’s been their election strategy for years now; its memory is invoked like Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and Dealey Plaza rolled into one neat campaign ad. There’s a problem, though, revealed most recently in last week’s primaries: It’s…
TheBlaze · May 20, 2024
Democratic establishment's Jan. 6 'hero' defeated in House primary — and people are thanking Steve Baker
Former U.S. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn won the confidence of establishment Democrats by dutifully bolstering their preferred Jan. 6 narrative, even though it diverged greatly from reality. He tried to replicate that success Tuesday in the Maryland Hou…
TheBlaze · May 15, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗