Democratic
Sarah Elfreth
Incumbent representative for MD-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Maryland District 3 election, 2026
Sarah Elfreth vs. Berney Flowers. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Sarah Elfreth favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+31.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+24.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Berney Flowers
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Sarah ElfrethDEM · incumbent$1.4M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $241k5% from donors under $200Self-funded $649
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$167k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$59k
- Legal & Professional Services$50k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$45k
- Retired$36k
States
- MD$576k
- DC$49k
- VA$46k
- FL$27k
- GA$7k
Berney FlowersREP$35k raised
Spent $30kCash on hand $9kDebts $3k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $3k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$11k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Not Reported$1k
States
- MD$12k
- TX$5k
- WV$275
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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Raw Story · July 28, 2025
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Freerepublic.com · February 17, 2025
The slow death of DC Democrats’ Jan. 6 politics
Democrats bet big on January 6. It’s been their election strategy for years now; its memory is invoked like Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and Dealey Plaza rolled into one neat campaign ad. There’s a problem, though, revealed most recently in last week’s primaries: It’s…
TheBlaze · May 20, 2024
Democratic establishment's Jan. 6 'hero' defeated in House primary — and people are thanking Steve Baker
Former U.S. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn won the confidence of establishment Democrats by dutifully bolstering their preferred Jan. 6 narrative, even though it diverged greatly from reality. He tried to replicate that success Tuesday in the Maryland Hou…
TheBlaze · May 15, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗