Democratic
Rashida Tlaib
Incumbent representative for MI-12. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Michigan District 12 election, 2026
Rashida Tlaib vs. James Hooper. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Rashida Tlaib favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+45.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+38.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
James Hooper
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Gary Walkowicz · Working Class
- Brenda K. Sanders · Green
- Marc J. Sosnowski · U.S. Taxpayers
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-12. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Rashida TlaibDEM · incumbent$3.3M raised
Spent $4.5MCash on hand $3.0M31% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$631k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$226k
- Technology & Communications$59k
- Legal & Professional Services$56k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$38k
States
- CA$461k
- NY$152k
- MI$150k
- WA$134k
- OH$127k
James HooperREP$2k raised
Spent $3kCash on hand $8kDebts $53348% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-12; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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Raw Story · November 5, 2026
'No Blank Checks for Big Tech': Schumer Faces Protest Over 'Dirty Data Center Deal'
Protesters are planning to gather outside the Brooklyn home of US Sen. Chuck Schumer on Friday morning, demanding he block what they've dubbed a "dirty data center deal" from passing through the Senate.The bill, known as the Bipartisan American Affordability …
Common Dreams · November 5, 2026
Every DSA Candidate Who Won a National Race This Election
The Democratic Socialists of America are here to stay. One of the most contentious—and misunderstood—political groups in the country rode a wave of popular support to groundbreaking victories this election.First reanimated by the 2016 Bernie Sanders campaign …
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
So Who’s Running the Party Now: Progressives or Moderates?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Democrats have won a massive majority in the House, and amid the celebrations, di…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗