Democratic
Donavan McKinney
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Michigan District 13 election, 2026
Donavan McKinney vs. T. P. Nykoriak. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Donavan McKinney favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+49.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+41.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging D+50.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+48.4.
Republican
T. P. Nykoriak
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Simone R. Coleman · Working Class
- Chris Dardzinski · U.S. Taxpayers
- Raelyn Light · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Donavan McKinneyDEM$1.9M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $130k39% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$284k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$95k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$44k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$43k
- Legal & Professional Services$28k
States
- MI$311k
- CA$172k
- NY$115k
- DC$50k
- FL$35k
T. P. NykoriakREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-13; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗