Democratic
Ashley Bell
Major-party general-election nominee.
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North Carolina District 10 election, 2026
Ashley Bell vs. Pat Harrigan on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Pat Harrigan favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+14.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+17.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+15.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+13.4.
Republican
Pat Harrigan
Incumbent representative for NC-10. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Steve Feldman · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Pat HarriganREP · incumbent$1.3M raised
Spent $908kCash on hand $463k7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$121k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$62k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$40k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$26k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$25k
States
- NC$309k
- VA$56k
- CA$53k
- NY$40k
- TX$33k
Ashley BellDEM$148k raised
Spent $136kCash on hand $12kDebts $9k36% from donors under $200Self-funded $17k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$36k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$13k
- Retired$3k
- Transportation & Logistics$3k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$1k
States
- NC$56k
- NY$4k
- DC$3k
- CA$1k
- OR$1k
Steve FeldmanLIB$49k raised
Spent $65kCash on hand $1k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $48k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
States
- IL$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NC-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
EXCLUSIVE: Congressman Wants Surveillance Cameras To ‘Get The Flock Out’ Of His District
Rep. Pat Harrigan spoke out against Flock Safety’s vast network of surveillance devices and proposed a way Congress can rebuke it.
The Daily Caller · September 15, 2026
US Military Disables Ad Trackers On Devices To Protect Troops
Slashdot reader DeanonymizedCoward writes: Reuters reports that the US Military is disabling ad tracking on devices, to prevent adversaries from buying publicly-available tracking data to assist in targeting troops. Military officials say that they have disab…
Slashdot.org · September 7, 2026
US troops can still be tracked by purchased location data, and Congress wants to know why
The US military's effort to prevent troops from being tracked by adversaries through purchased location data hasn't worked as well as anticipated, and lawmakers want to know why. US Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-NC) on Friday asked for an …
Biztoc.com · September 6, 2026
US Military Disables Ad Trackers on Devices to Protect Troops
Reuters reports that the US Military is disabling ad tracking on devices, to prevent adversaries from buying publicly-available tracking data to assist in targeting troops. Military officials say that they have disabled trackers on a variety of computers and …
Slashdot.org · September 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗