Democratic
Don Davis
Incumbent representative for NC-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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North Carolina District 1 election, 2026
Don Davis vs. Laurie Buckhout on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Don Davis favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.2
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+11.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
5, averaging D+5.0Forecast spread
±5.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 5 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said R+1.6.
Republican
Laurie Buckhout
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Tom Bailey · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Don DavisDEM · incumbent$5.8M raised
Spent $5.3MCash on hand $826k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$268k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$266k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$70k
- Technology & Communications$66k
States
- CA$612k
- NY$377k
- NC$346k
- MA$241k
- FL$134k
Laurie BuckhoutREP$4.8M raised
Spent $3.4MCash on hand $1.4MDebts $3.1M3% from donors under $200Self-funded $2.4M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$309k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$87k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$64k
- Homemaker$26k
- Legal & Professional Services$18k
States
- NC$493k
- TX$76k
- FL$72k
- NY$34k
- VA$31k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NC-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in North Carolina's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
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Lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com · Yesterday
Have You Seen This Guy'Dummymander For The Ages'ave You Seen This GuyDummymander For The Ages's Ass?
Last year, North Carolina Republicans got the bright idea to try and draw Democrat Don Davis out of existence, giving them an 11-3 instead of a 10-4 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. State Sen. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, led the effort. via Carolina…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
Republicans Tried to Rig the Maps. It Backfired Big Time.
Republicans tried to upend Democratic election odds by redrawing congressional districts across the country, but even that wasn’t enough to dam the Blue Wave.Despite making new maps to boost Republican candidates in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Alaba…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a midterm edge. It failed.
WASHINGTON (AP) — At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midt…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗