Democratic
Don Davis
Incumbent representative for NC-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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North Carolina District 1 election, 2026
Don Davis vs. Laurie Buckhout on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Don Davis favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+1.9
62%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+11.62026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+10.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+3.3.
Republican
Laurie Buckhout
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Tom Bailey · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Neighborhood Research and Media2026-10-06D+10.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NC-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in North Carolina's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗