Democratic
Lakesha Womack
Major-party general-election nominee.
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North Carolina District 14 election, 2026
Lakesha Womack vs. Tim Moore on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Tim Moore favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+9.8
94%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+15.22026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+8.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+10.9.
Republican
Tim Moore
Incumbent representative for NC-14. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Tim MooreREP · incumbent$2.1M raised
Spent $1.9MCash on hand $1.1M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$151k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$128k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$80k
- Homemaker$44k
- Legal & Professional Services$36k
States
- NC$1.0M
- OH$42k
- PR$35k
- FL$32k
- NY$24k
Lakesha WomackDEM$59k raised
Spent $56kCash on hand $5k44% from donors under $200Self-funded $3k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$5k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$250
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$100
States
- NC$6k
- TN$750
- FL$540
- CA$250
- DC$250
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NC-14; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Tim Moore Questions Democrat Opponent’s Fitness For Congress After Felony Summons
By VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | October 28, 2026 A Democrat nominee for Congress in North Carolina, LaKesha Womack, was served with a felony criminal summons at her own campaign rally last week. Her opponent, incumbent Republican Tim Moore, is …
Biztoc.com · October 29, 2026
Rep. Moore: Congress Should Focus on Economy, Not Investigations
Republican Congressman Tim Moore of North Carolina said he believes Democrats are unlikely to win a House majority, but ...
Biztoc.com · October 12, 2026
Republican squirms on CNN when confronted about new Trump ad: 'Not going to defend that'
A MAGA congressman who describes himself as a spending “hawk” squirmed on CNN Monday when confronted about the Trump administration's use of taxpayer money to promote the president.The moment came on CNN "News Central" when anchor Boris Sanchez pressed Rep. T…
Raw Story · October 5, 2026
Recent Filing Shows That Rep. Tim Moore Bought Over $65K Worth of Hyster Yale Stock
A report on October 10, 2025 shows that Representative Tim Moore from North Carolina purchase stock in Hyster Yale (NYSE:HY), valued between $65,002 and $150,000. According to the October filing, the transaction occurred on September 11, 2025. At the time of …
Biztoc.com · October 13, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗