New York District 12 election, 2026

Micah Lasher vs. Caroline Shinkle.

VotePredictor forecast

Micah Lasher favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+64.1

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+65.8

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Micah Lasher

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Caroline Shinkle

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Wilneida Negron · Independent
Karen Ortiz · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-12. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-12; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NY-11 · NY-13