Democratic
Micah Lasher
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New York District 12 election, 2026
Micah Lasher vs. Caroline Shinkle. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Micah Lasher favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+71.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+64.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Caroline Shinkle
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Karen Ortiz · Independent
- Wilneida Negron · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-12. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Micah LasherDEM$3.5M raised
Spent $3.2MCash on hand $309kDebts $400k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $500k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- HUNTINGTON, DAVID$11k
- MOHRER, JOSHUA$11k
- TAUBMAN, WILLIAM$11k
- HESS, ANNE$8k
- RICKS, MARC$8k
Industries
- Unemployed$579k
- Legal & Professional Services$256k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$247k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$226k
- Not Reported$82k
States
- NY$2.5M
- CT$63k
- NJ$60k
- CA$34k
- DC$34k
Caroline ShinkleREP$273k raised
Spent $147kCash on hand $126kDebts $25k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $26k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$33k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$32k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$11k
- Legal & Professional Services$9k
- Government$5k
States
- NY$112k
- NJ$17k
- FL$15k
- MA$10k
- OH$9k
Wilneida NegronIDP$58k raised
Spent $52kCash on hand $6kDebts $56k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $54k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- NEGRON, WILNEIDA$34k
- DONNENFIELD, DAVID$692
- JAFFER, BURHAN$500
- YOUNG, SUSAN$500
- NEGRON, ROSALYN DR.$250
Industries
- Retired$692
- Education & Academia$500
States
- CA$1k
- NJ$500
- MA$250
- NY$250
- LA$192
Karen OrtizIND$47k raised
Spent $24kCash on hand $14kDebts $25k10% from donors under $200Self-funded $26k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ORTIZ, KAREN$39k
- COOK, CRAIG$1k
- DAVITT, DIANE$521
- SCHIRO, KIMBERLY$500
- CHIU, FRANKLIN$300
Industries
- Not Reported$1k
- Government$500
- Retired$216
States
- FL$2k
- CT$500
- NY$400
- WA$225
- CA$216
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-12; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗