Democratic
Michael DeCillis
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New York District 11 election, 2026
Michael DeCillis vs. Nicole Malliotakis. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Nicole Malliotakis favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+22.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+24.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nicole Malliotakis
Incumbent representative for NY-11. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-11. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Nicole MalliotakisREP · incumbent$3.3M raised
Spent $1.9MCash on hand $2.8M8% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$303k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$168k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$86k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$43k
- Legal & Professional Services$35k
States
- NY$616k
- CA$123k
- FL$67k
- DC$64k
- NJ$55k
Michael DeCillisDEM$183k raised
Spent $75kCash on hand $108k24% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$54k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$8k
- Education & Academia$4k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$3k
- Retired$2k
States
- NY$107k
- NJ$4k
- OH$1k
- WA$800
- CA$750
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 11th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Top House Republican has her own record thrown in her face during live CNN interview
CNN’s Brianna Keilar confronted a top House Republican with her own words and voting record Thursday before challenging her attempt to downplay the Iran war’s impact on her party’s disastrous midterm election losses.The moment came as Rep. Nicole Malliotakis …
Raw Story · Yesterday
Congresswoman Warns Incoming Socialists Are "National Security Threat," Wants Their Access To Intel Limited
Congresswoman Warns Incoming Socialists Are "National Security Threat," Wants Their Access To Intel Limited Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, (R-N.Y.), said two members of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) who appear headed to Congress could pose a national…
Biztoc.com · October 14, 2026
Video Shows New York Man Getting Struck by Lightning
A Staten Island staffer for US Rep. Nicole Malliotakis is alive to tell the tale after a lightning strike dropped him in the street just steps from his car—and it's all on video, NBC News reports. Thomas Fahmy was walking along Todt Hill Road last Thursday, a…
Newser · September 2, 2026
New York City’s lone Republican in Congress accuses Mamdani, Schumer of 'hypocrisy' in voter ID fight
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y. argues Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats block the SAVE Act while claiming to support voter ID in their districts.
Fox News · August 14, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗