Democratic
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Incumbent representative for NY-14. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New York District 14 election, 2026
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs. Diamant Hysenaj. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+34.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+32.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Diamant Hysenaj
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-14. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDEM · incumbent$38.0M raised
Spent $24.2MCash on hand $17.6M64% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- THE SQUAD VICTORY FUND$111k
- LIU, ALLEN Y.$15k
- ALPERN, SPENSER$13k
- MALLOY, TIMON$12k
- LESSNAU, KLAUS$10k
Industries
- Unemployed$7.0M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1.3M
- Technology & Communications$297k
- Education & Academia$266k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$151k
States
- CA$3.1M
- NY$1.6M
- WA$706k
- MA$649k
- TX$549k
Diamant HysenajREP$446k raised
Spent $405kCash on hand $41kDebts $28k60% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$64k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
- Education & Academia$2k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$2k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$1k
States
- NY$95k
- TX$15k
- NJ$13k
- CT$12k
- FL$5k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-14; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗