Democratic
Ritchie Torres
Incumbent representative for NY-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New York District 15 election, 2026
Ritchie Torres vs. Stylo Sapaskis. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ritchie Torres favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+51.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+48.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Stylo Sapaskis
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Andre Easton · Independent
- Jose Vega · Independent
- Gonzalo Duran · Conservative
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-15. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ritchie TorresDEM · incumbent$7.2M raised
Spent $4.8MCash on hand $13.8M2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$453k
- Not Reported$383k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$212k
- Retired$130k
- Legal & Professional Services$106k
States
- NY$805k
- CA$307k
- FL$274k
- CO$111k
- MA$92k
Jose VegaDEM$345k raised
Spent $340kCash on hand $6k21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$60k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$48k
- Retired$37k
- Unemployed$7k
- Government$6k
States
- NY$59k
- CA$48k
- VA$36k
- FL$20k
- NJ$12k
Andre EastonIND$94k raised
Spent $83kCash on hand $82841% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$14k
- Unemployed$5k
- Technology & Communications$3k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Government$888
States
- NY$37k
- WA$981
- CA$803
- NJ$571
- IL$517
Stylo SapaskisREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Ritchie Torres, the first out gay Afro-Latino member of Congress, wins reelection
Rep. Ritchie Torres has won a fourth term representing New York’s 15th Congressional District, returning the Bronx Democrat to Washington as he presses the Trump administration over its handling of LGBTQ+ housing discrimination complaints.
Advocate.com · November 4, 2026
Rep. Ritchie Torres Wants Gamers to Own the Games They Buy, Announces Power To The Players Act - TechPowerUp
Rep. Ritchie Torres Wants Gamers to Own the Games They Buy, Announces Power To The Players ActTechPowerUp Rep. Torres Announces Power To The Players Act, Legislation to Ensure Gamers Own Their GamesHouse.gov US Rep proposes bill to give video game buyers "own…
Slashdot.org · October 19, 2026
New Video Game Law Proposed: 'If You Pay For It, You Own It'
"When you pay for a game, you should own it," says U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY), introducing a new bill to fight the practice of "a rental disguised as a sale". Kotaku reports: The fifth best-selling game of 2024 in the U.S. was NBA 2K25. E…
Slashdot.org · October 18, 2026
Video game ownership bill introduced in Congress - The Verge
Video game ownership bill introduced in CongressThe Verge US Rep proposes bill to give video game buyers "ownership," not "a license"Ars Technica Rep. Torres Announces Power To The Players Act, Legislation to Ensure Gamers Own Their GamesHouse.gov Rep. Ritchi…
Slashdot.org · October 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗