Democratic
Ritchie Torres
Incumbent representative for NY-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Ritchie Torres favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+64.2
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+53.82026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Stylo Sapaskis
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Gonzalo Duran · Conservative
- Andre Easton · Independent
- Jose Vega · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-15. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…
The New Republic · September 3, 2026
'As Toxic as AIPAC': Casar Urges Dems to Reject AI Industry Money and Protect Workers
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar this week urged fellow Democrats to reject campaign support from artificial intelligence industry lobbyists and unveiled a bill intended to help protect workers from AI-related mass unemployment. The Texas con…
Common Dreams · August 7, 2026
How Popular Is Hakeem Jeffries Among Democrats?
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗