Democratic
Ritchie Torres
Incumbent representative for NY-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Ritchie Torres favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+54.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+48.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Stylo Sapaskis
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Gonzalo Duran · Conservative
- Andre Easton · Socialism and Liberation
- Jose Vega · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-15. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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The New Republic · September 11, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
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The New Republic · September 3, 2026
'As Toxic as AIPAC': Casar Urges Dems to Reject AI Industry Money and Protect Workers
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Common Dreams · August 7, 2026
How Popular Is Hakeem Jeffries Among Democrats?
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗