Democratic
Gregory Meeks
Incumbent representative for NY-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
New York District 5 election, 2026
Gregory Meeks vs. George Marsh. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Gregory Meeks favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+44.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+42.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
George Marsh
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Gregory MeeksDEM · incumbent$2.3M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $2.1M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- MEEKS VICTORY$311k
- LOWY, DANIEL$14k
- AROUGHETI, MICHAEL$7k
- BAKES, JUSTIN$7k
- BILLS, STEVEN$7k
Industries
- Not Reported$169k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$138k
- Legal & Professional Services$54k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$54k
- Technology & Communications$36k
States
- NY$337k
- CA$194k
- MD$54k
- IL$47k
- DC$45k
George MarshREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Meeks launches bid to chair Foreign Affairs again
Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York officially announced his bid to lead the House Foreign Affairs Committee in a letter to colleagues Thursday. Meeks is not expected to face a challenger despite sharp divisions within the party over issues like military aid for I…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Trump's decision to waive Russia sanctions sparks bipartisan outrage
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's abrupt decision to waive sanctions on Russia days before they were to take effect drew outrage Saturday from members of Congress, which had overwhelmingly passed the legislation in a bipartisan display of American su…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 17, 2026
Trump Strikes 'Deal With the Devil' for Russian Diesel as High Prices Hinder GOP in Midterms
Democrats in Congress and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday swiftly condemned US President Donald Trump's plan to secure diesel from Russia in hopes of combating fuel prices that have skyrocketed due to his illegal war on Iran."I have just con…
Common Dreams · October 9, 2026
House Democrats slam Trump over Russia sanctions
House Democrats are panning the Trump administration after US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer wouldn’t commit last week to imposing Russian sanctions recently enacted by Congress. Rep. Greg Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs …
Biztoc.com · October 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗