Democratic
Laura Gillen
Incumbent representative for NY-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Laura Gillen favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+16.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+4.52026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jeanine Driscoll
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-4. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
And There's Always The Bezos Post
Okay I'm listening:Thirteen Democratic House members and candidates announced their support Thursday for a centrist initiative aimed at pushing back against the party’s tilt toward democratic socialism. And what is this initiative:Killin is one of the 13 who…
Eschatonblog.com · June 26, 2026
'MAGA's Weird Obsession' Continues as House Passes Bill Forcing Schools to 'Out' Trans Kids
The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation that critics warn would force public schools receiving federal funding to "out" transgender students to their parents without or without their consent, a policy that advocat…
Common Dreams · May 21, 2026
House defies Trump on immigration policy as GOP ranks splinter
A small group of defectors in the House Republican caucus broke ranks and joined Democrats to advance a rebuke of President Donald Trump on a key immigration policy this week, handing the president a humiliation and a danger sign for his coalition's strength.…
Raw Story · April 16, 2026
Vulnerable Democrat Pursues ‘Shameless’ Campaign Tactic — After Being Called Out The First Time
Just months after facing backlash for touting federal funding she had opposed, Democratic New York Rep. Laura Gillen once again stood smiling behind a massive cutout check tied to funding she voted against. Gillen, a freshman lawmaker facing a potentially tou…
The Daily Caller · February 20, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗