Democratic
Maria Jukic
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 14 election, 2026
Maria Jukic vs. David Joyce on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
David Joyce favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+20.52026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
David Joyce
Incumbent representative for OH-14. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OH-14. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026David JoyceREP · incumbent$1.8M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $2.2M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$81k
- Retired$49k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$47k
- Legal & Professional Services$40k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$32k
States
- OH$239k
- NY$47k
- DC$44k
- FL$41k
- VA$30k
Maria JukicDEM$118k raised
Spent $80kCash on hand $38kDebts $11k34% from donors under $200Self-funded $80
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$23k
- Unemployed$7k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$2k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$1k
States
- OH$42k
- VA$8k
- NY$3k
- MI$3k
- IL$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-14; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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The Root · October 14, 2026
Ohio’s 'Ghost Offices': Republicans Are Breaking Social Security
Last week, I visited three chronically understaffed Social Security “ghost offices” in Ohio. These are Social Security field offices with too few staff to meaningfully serve the local community. That means people have to wait months for an appointment, if the…
Common Dreams · April 28, 2026
'I really cant point to much': Republicans admit they got little accomplished in Congress
Republican lawmakers admitted 2025 was a legislative wasteland, with Congress setting a modern record for lowest output in a president's first year, but some attributed their inaction to a simple explanation: President Donald Trump did much of their work for …
Raw Story · December 24, 2025
Ex-Ohio Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill joins race for district held by GOP US Rep. David Joyce
Former Ohio Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill has announced plans to run for the northeast Ohio congressional seat held by Republican U.S. Rep. David Joyce
ABC News · June 25, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗