Democratic
Don Leonard
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 15 election, 2026
Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Carey favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+2.4
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.12026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging EVENForecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+5.1.
Republican
Mike Carey
Incumbent representative for OH-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Brennan Barrington · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike CareyREP · incumbent$4.2M raised
Spent $4.0MCash on hand $370k3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$113k
- Not Reported$103k
- Legal & Professional Services$99k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$67k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$41k
States
- OH$386k
- VA$120k
- DC$71k
- CA$62k
- TX$46k
Don LeonardDEM$1.3M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $98kDebts $5k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $12k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$233k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$91k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$43k
- Retired$37k
- Not Reported$32k
States
- OH$556k
- CA$93k
- NY$38k
- MI$37k
- MA$32k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Trump endorses Mike Carey in tight Ohio congressional race
Trump's endorsement may influence voter sentiment and campaign dynamics, potentially impacting the Republican hold in a shifting district. The post Trump endorses Mike Carey in tight Ohio congressional race appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
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Common Dreams · April 28, 2026
Supreme Court blocks candidate after alleged GOP infiltration scheme exposed (Ohio)
The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a self-described "progressive" candidate’s bid to enter Ohio’s Republican primary, leaving in place a decision by state election officials to disqualify him for misrepresenting his party affiliation. Samuel Ronan, a form…
Freerepublic.com · April 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗