Democratic
Don Leonard
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 15 election, 2026
Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Carey favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.9
98%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.12026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Mike Carey
Incumbent representative for OH-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Brennan Barrington · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Hart Research Associates2026-06-25R+5.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Washington Takes Fresh Aim At Crypto Taxes With New IRS Review Bill
Kraken sent 56 million tax forms to the Internal Revenue Service last year. Nearly a third covered transactions worth less than a dollar. More than 75% were for trades under $50. Those numbers, cited by the crypto exchange last month, have added weight to a g…
newsBTC · May 21, 2026
Ohio’s 'Ghost Offices': Republicans Are Breaking Social Security
Last week, I visited three chronically understaffed Social Security “ghost offices” in Ohio. These are Social Security field offices with too few staff to meaningfully serve the local community. That means people have to wait months for an appointment, if the…
Common Dreams · April 28, 2026
Supreme Court blocks candidate after alleged GOP infiltration scheme exposed (Ohio)
The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a self-described "progressive" candidate’s bid to enter Ohio’s Republican primary, leaving in place a decision by state election officials to disqualify him for misrepresenting his party affiliation. Samuel Ronan, a form…
Freerepublic.com · April 10, 2026
MAGA Senator Got Shady Donation Before Voting to Block Epstein Files
Ohio Senator John Husted accepted thousands of dollars in donations from one of Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged co-conspirators, before voting against releasing the Department of Justice’s files on the alleged sex trafficker. As long as Husted has been in office, h…
The New Republic · February 13, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗