Democratic
Don Leonard
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 15 election, 2026
Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Carey favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+4.0
78%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.12026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
2, averaging R+2.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+6.4.
Republican
Mike Carey
Incumbent representative for OH-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Brennan Barrington · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Hart Research Associates2026-09-24D+1.0
Hart Research Associates2026-06-25R+5.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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The New Republic · February 13, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗