Democratic
Marcy Kaptur
Incumbent representative for OH-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Ohio District 9 election, 2026
Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Marcy Kaptur favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.1
51%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.72026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+0.7Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+0.6.
Republican
Derek Merrin
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Matthew Althaus · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Marcy KapturDEM · incumbent$5.9M raised
Spent $5.7MCash on hand $698k11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$946k
- Retired$298k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$193k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$152k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$123k
States
- OH$867k
- CA$508k
- NY$387k
- MA$211k
- DC$94k
Derek MerrinREP$2.2M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $449kDebts $37k6% from donors under $200Self-funded $310k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
The Secret Weapon That Went Pffft: The GOP’s Anti-Trans Attack Ads
Republicans entered the 2026 mid-terms in a bad position. Donald Trump has completely taken over the party, effectively crushing anyone who doesn’t go along with his mad decrees. At the same time, inflation is up, ICE is brutalizing people across the country,…
The New Republic · November 5, 2026
Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur wins Ohio rematch
The northwestern Ohio district was redrawn in October 2025, creating a more Republican-leaning seat.
CBS News · November 4, 2026
7:30 p.m. – North Carolina and Ohio
Two major Senate races and an important governor’s race. North Carolina Senate: Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R). Ohio Senate: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R). Ohio Governor: Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R). NC-01: Rep. Don Davis (D), defendi…
Politicalwire.com · November 4, 2026
Were 3 Democratic women running for Congress in car crashes ahead of the midterms?
U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Mary Peltola of Alaska and Heidi Kuhn of Tennessee were injured in accidents between August and October.
Snopes.com · October 30, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗