Democratic
Marcy Kaptur
Incumbent representative for OH-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
Ohio District 9 election, 2026
Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Derek Merrin favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.4
59%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.72026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging EVENForecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+2.4.
Republican
Derek Merrin
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Matthew Althaus · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2026-09-23EVEN
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Dems in tight races backpedal on trans messaging — after voting to support biological men in women’s sports
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) declared in a recent ad, "I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what’s best for their kids."
New York Post · October 6, 2026
4 ways the midterm elections could turn out, with a month to go
Democrats are heading into the last month of the midterm elections campaign with ambitions going deeper and deeper into red territory, while Republicans are grim about their hopes of holding on to either chamber of Congress. Historically, the opposition part…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 5, 2026
As Trump's approval rating drops, Republicans begin to lose confidence in midterms
The US Capitol Building is seen on October 1, in Washington, DC. - Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing…
CNN · October 3, 2026
Transcript: Can Democrats Be Both Principled and Pragmatic?
This is a lightly edited transcript of the September 27 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.Perry Bacon: I’m joined by Paul Frymer. He’s a great political scientist. He’s written…
The New Republic · September 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗