Oklahoma District 1 election, 2026

John Croisant vs. Mark Tedford.

VotePredictor forecast

Mark Tedford favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+22.3

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+21.8

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

John Croisant

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Mark Tedford

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OK-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OK-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Oklahoma's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2020Kevin Hern(R)R+31.0

2018Kevin Hern(R)R+18.6

2004John A. Sullivan(R)R+22.6

2002John A. Sullivan(R)R+13.4

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: OH-9 · OK-2